Key Takeaways
- • HarbourVest managing director Greg Ciesielski says the private equity secondaries market has grown from roughly US$10 billion two decades ago to about US$225 billion last year, and is widely expected to surpass US$300 billion in annual deal volume.
- • GP-led continuation vehicles are the main growth engine, with Ciesielski projecting the GP-led segment alone could reach around US$150 billion this year.
- • The private credit secondaries market has grown from about US$2 billion to roughly US$20 billion, with an annualised run-rate now above US$50 billion, according to Ciesielski.
- • Ciesielski argues the binding constraint is now supply of capital and specialist lead arrangers, not demand for liquidity, as US listed companies have fallen from around 7,000 a decade ago to roughly 4,000 today.
- • Median time to reach 1.0x DPI for private credit vehicles raised since 2018 is closer to 10 years, versus six-to-eight-year fund lives, creating a duration mismatch that is driving liquidity demand.
Summary
As IPOs decline and the number of listed companies shrinks, value creation is increasingly occurring in private markets, according to HarbourVest. High-quality assets are being recycled through GP-led continuation vehicles and secondary funds rather than public exchanges, allowing managers to hold prized assets for years while still providing investors with periodic liquidity.
HarbourVest managing director Greg Ciesielski said the private equity secondaries market has expanded from around US$10 billion two decades ago to roughly US$225 billion last year. He said the GP-led market alone could reach around US$150 billion this year, with the overall secondaries market moving beyond US$300 billion. He noted that among the top 100 managers, well over 95 have completed a GP-led deal, and essentially all plan to do more. He also said the secondaries market has only ever grown or plateaued in 20 years of activity.
In private credit, Ciesielski said secondaries, which remain less than 1 per cent of the overall private credit market, have grown from US$2 billion to around US$20 billion and now track at an annualised run-rate above US$50 billion. He expects private credit secondaries to be the fastest-growing segment in private markets over the next few years, citing a limited number of credible lead arrangers and constrained capital as the main constraints. He said more first-lien senior direct lending transactions were completed in 2025 than in the market's entire prior history combined.
Ciesielski said secondaries are undercapitalised relative to primary markets, which he believes has created a bias toward quality, since buyers resist deals where GPs appear to be selling for the wrong reasons. He said HarbourVest is not a discount buyer and that most value comes from post-closing appreciation. He also pointed to a duration mismatch in private credit, where vehicles raised since 2018 were structured around six-to-eight-year lives but have a median time to 1.0x DPI closer to 10 years.
Ciesielski argued that secondaries offer new private markets investors instant diversification, shorter duration and a smoother cash-flow profile. He noted HarbourVest has been active in APAC since 1996 and in Australia and New Zealand since around 1990, describing Australia's superannuation system as a core supporter of the market.
HarbourVest managing director Greg Ciesielski said the private equity secondaries market has expanded from around US$10 billion two decades ago to roughly US$225 billion last year. He said the GP-led market alone could reach around US$150 billion this year, with the overall secondaries market moving beyond US$300 billion. He noted that among the top 100 managers, well over 95 have completed a GP-led deal, and essentially all plan to do more. He also said the secondaries market has only ever grown or plateaued in 20 years of activity.
In private credit, Ciesielski said secondaries, which remain less than 1 per cent of the overall private credit market, have grown from US$2 billion to around US$20 billion and now track at an annualised run-rate above US$50 billion. He expects private credit secondaries to be the fastest-growing segment in private markets over the next few years, citing a limited number of credible lead arrangers and constrained capital as the main constraints. He said more first-lien senior direct lending transactions were completed in 2025 than in the market's entire prior history combined.
Ciesielski said secondaries are undercapitalised relative to primary markets, which he believes has created a bias toward quality, since buyers resist deals where GPs appear to be selling for the wrong reasons. He said HarbourVest is not a discount buyer and that most value comes from post-closing appreciation. He also pointed to a duration mismatch in private credit, where vehicles raised since 2018 were structured around six-to-eight-year lives but have a median time to 1.0x DPI closer to 10 years.
Ciesielski argued that secondaries offer new private markets investors instant diversification, shorter duration and a smoother cash-flow profile. He noted HarbourVest has been active in APAC since 1996 and in Australia and New Zealand since around 1990, describing Australia's superannuation system as a core supporter of the market.
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