Key Takeaways
- • Q2 2026 delivered a record €43bn in DACH PE deal value, but €29bn of that came from Advent and Cinven's exit of TK Elevator, so underlying activity was far softer.
- • PE deal count fell from 76 in Q1 to 71 in Q2 2026, and exits dropped from 30 to 24, according to Carlsquare's analysis of Mergermarket and PitchBook data.
- • Excluding TKE, H1 2026 deal count fell 9.3% year over year, from 162 to 147, while exit values now lag H1 2025.
- • Carlsquare's base case is a higher H2 2026 deal count but lower headline deal value, with European dry powder at a historically high €459bn.
- • DACH healthcare deal flow remains thin, but sponsors pay above 12x EBITDA for defensible, sticky assets, and regulatory clarity could open a sale window in H2 2026.
Summary
Carlsquare's Q2 2026 Private Equity Insights report describes a bifurcated quarter for DACH private equity. Total PE deal value reached a record €43bn, and exit value reached €35bn, but both figures were dominated by Advent and Cinven's landmark €29bn exit from TK Elevator, one of the largest European PE exits on record. The number of PE deals fell from 76 in Q1 to 71 in Q2, and exits declined from 30 to 24 over the same period. Excluding TKE, H1 2026 deal count was down 9.3%, from 162 in H1 2025 to 147 in H1 2026, and exit values lag the prior year absent the TKE transaction.
Looking to H2 2026, Carlsquare cites geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, interest rate volatility, inflation concerns and AI-driven valuation gaps, particularly in software, as headwinds. Structural drivers remain in place: European dry powder has accumulated to €459bn, one-third of European assets have been held in PE portfolios for more than seven years, and 20% of European LPs are trimming PE allocations. Carlsquare's base case is a higher deal count in H2 than H1 but a lower headline deal value, as Q2's record was a single-asset event. The report notes that sellers of defensible, growing assets have a current window, while generic or AI-exposed businesses face a structural rather than cyclical valuation gap.
In healthcare, Carlsquare's Head of Healthcare Caspar Graf Stauffenberg says H1 2026 deal flow remained limited, with competitive tension difficult to sustain given regulatory complexity. Digitisation, specialised IT services, tech-enabled payer and provider services, and healthcare infrastructure attract the most interest. Buyers pay EBITDA multiples above 12x only where regulatory risk, genuine growth and low customer churn align. Carlsquare expects German healthcare and nursing reforms, once decided, to reduce uncertainty and encourage sponsors to bring held-back assets to market.
In financing, the European leveraged loan market regained momentum in Q2 2026 with tighter spreads and robust issuance, according to Carlsquare's Debt Advisory team. The ECB raised rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England maintained a more dovish stance. Carlsquare highlights working capital financing as a tool for mid-market borrowers seeking liquidity without adding term debt or consuming senior facility headroom.
Looking to H2 2026, Carlsquare cites geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, interest rate volatility, inflation concerns and AI-driven valuation gaps, particularly in software, as headwinds. Structural drivers remain in place: European dry powder has accumulated to €459bn, one-third of European assets have been held in PE portfolios for more than seven years, and 20% of European LPs are trimming PE allocations. Carlsquare's base case is a higher deal count in H2 than H1 but a lower headline deal value, as Q2's record was a single-asset event. The report notes that sellers of defensible, growing assets have a current window, while generic or AI-exposed businesses face a structural rather than cyclical valuation gap.
In healthcare, Carlsquare's Head of Healthcare Caspar Graf Stauffenberg says H1 2026 deal flow remained limited, with competitive tension difficult to sustain given regulatory complexity. Digitisation, specialised IT services, tech-enabled payer and provider services, and healthcare infrastructure attract the most interest. Buyers pay EBITDA multiples above 12x only where regulatory risk, genuine growth and low customer churn align. Carlsquare expects German healthcare and nursing reforms, once decided, to reduce uncertainty and encourage sponsors to bring held-back assets to market.
In financing, the European leveraged loan market regained momentum in Q2 2026 with tighter spreads and robust issuance, according to Carlsquare's Debt Advisory team. The ECB raised rates by 25 bps, while the Bank of England maintained a more dovish stance. Carlsquare highlights working capital financing as a tool for mid-market borrowers seeking liquidity without adding term debt or consuming senior facility headroom.
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