Key Takeaways
- • Single-family offices are projected to reach $5.4 trillion in assets under management by 2030, according to Deloitte, while With Intelligence pegs current investable assets at $4.7 trillion, around 8% of global pension assets.
- • Assets are concentrating at the top: offices above $1 billion typically employ nearly 30 staff, have formal boards in 70% of cases, and pay chief investment officers around $900,000, per Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management and Botoff Consulting, while thousands of smaller offices run with fewer than ten people.
- • Scale determines access to returns: the largest offices can lend directly and capture 10%-plus senior loan yields, while smaller peers investing through funds see net yields near 8% after fees.
- • Buyout exit weakness and secondary market activity are pushing family offices toward funds and secondaries, with the secondary market for private equity stakes reaching a record $151 billion and trades at about 89% of net asset value last year.
- • The Archegos collapse, which inflicted roughly $10 billion of losses on lenders including Credit Suisse and Nomura, illustrates the systemic risk posed by lightly regulated family offices.
Summary
Reuters Breakingviews columnist Sebastian Pellejero writes that the world's wealthiest families are expanding their single-family offices in both size and number. Deloitte projects these offices could reach $5.4 trillion in assets under management by 2030. With Intelligence, which tracks just over 3,000 single-family offices, estimates current combined investable assets at $4.7 trillion, about 8% of global pension assets. Because nearly two-thirds were founded after 2000, the column argues that this tally likely understates their true scale.
The sector is dividing sharply by size. According to Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management and Botoff Consulting, offices managing more than $1 billion increasingly resemble mid-sized traditional asset managers, with nearly 30 staff on average, formal boards in 70% of cases, and chief investment officers earning around $900,000. Smaller offices, numbering in the thousands, typically operate with fewer than ten people and patchier governance. The column cites Archegos Capital Management, the former $36 billion vehicle of Bill Hwang, whose concentrated bets spiked shares of companies including Warner Bros. Discovery. Its collapse inflicted about $10 billion of losses on lenders including Credit Suisse and Nomura, and the column notes that light-touch regulation helped it avoid scrutiny.
Alternative investments now account for 42% of the average portfolio, roughly half in private equity, according to BlackRock. Only the largest offices can source deals independently, while smaller ones rely on co-investments, fund stakes and platforms such as Moonfare and iCapital. PwC estimates about 60% of U.S. family office investments take the form of club deals, which the column notes come with higher fees and less favorable terms. UBS finds family offices plan to reduce direct allocations from 21% to 18% in favor of funds. Private equity exits weakened, with $413 billion of exits in 2024 according to S&P Global, barely over half the 2021 peak, pushing the secondary market for PE fund stakes to a record $151 billion.
Higher interest rates are also sorting offices by scale. Around 40% of single-family offices plan to increase private credit exposure over the next year, per Bank of New York Mellon. The largest can lend directly, while smaller peers confined to funds see yields fall to around 8% after fees. Talent is another constraint: nearly 80% of family offices report hiring difficulties, according to AlTi Global and Campden Wealth. The column concludes that these pressures are creating a global hierarchy in which a small group of families controls portfolios worth tens of billions, with the biggest offices positioned to shape private markets in ways regulators have not fully addressed.
The sector is dividing sharply by size. According to Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management and Botoff Consulting, offices managing more than $1 billion increasingly resemble mid-sized traditional asset managers, with nearly 30 staff on average, formal boards in 70% of cases, and chief investment officers earning around $900,000. Smaller offices, numbering in the thousands, typically operate with fewer than ten people and patchier governance. The column cites Archegos Capital Management, the former $36 billion vehicle of Bill Hwang, whose concentrated bets spiked shares of companies including Warner Bros. Discovery. Its collapse inflicted about $10 billion of losses on lenders including Credit Suisse and Nomura, and the column notes that light-touch regulation helped it avoid scrutiny.
Alternative investments now account for 42% of the average portfolio, roughly half in private equity, according to BlackRock. Only the largest offices can source deals independently, while smaller ones rely on co-investments, fund stakes and platforms such as Moonfare and iCapital. PwC estimates about 60% of U.S. family office investments take the form of club deals, which the column notes come with higher fees and less favorable terms. UBS finds family offices plan to reduce direct allocations from 21% to 18% in favor of funds. Private equity exits weakened, with $413 billion of exits in 2024 according to S&P Global, barely over half the 2021 peak, pushing the secondary market for PE fund stakes to a record $151 billion.
Higher interest rates are also sorting offices by scale. Around 40% of single-family offices plan to increase private credit exposure over the next year, per Bank of New York Mellon. The largest can lend directly, while smaller peers confined to funds see yields fall to around 8% after fees. Talent is another constraint: nearly 80% of family offices report hiring difficulties, according to AlTi Global and Campden Wealth. The column concludes that these pressures are creating a global hierarchy in which a small group of families controls portfolios worth tens of billions, with the biggest offices positioned to shape private markets in ways regulators have not fully addressed.
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