Key Takeaways
- • Blackstone has told investors that Anthropic's credit rating is unlikely to reach investment grade even after its planned November IPO, with major agencies expected to assign a high speculative-grade ('junk') rating.
- • The $63 billion Project North Star semiconductor financing splits into roughly $45 billion of senior debt, guaranteed by Broadcom for more than $42 billion, and $18 billion of subordinated debt, of which Blackstone bought $9 billion at a yield above 10%.
- • Anthropic's S-1 discloses plans to invest more than $800 billion in AI infrastructure through 2045, against $112 billion in cash and cash equivalents and a targeted IPO raise of about $100 billion.
- • Cloud commitments total $269.4 billion, including $224 billion payable to Google Cloud and Amazon excluding TPU costs and $44.9 billion to Microsoft.
- • A junk rating would narrow the investor base for Anthropic's debt, since many insurers and pension funds restrict junk exposure, pushing more funding onto private credit and supplier-guaranteed structures.
Summary
Blackstone, the world's largest private equity firm, has told investors that Anthropic's credit rating is unlikely to climb to investment grade after its initial public offering, according to the primary report. The firm reportedly no longer expects the record-sized listing to trigger an upgrade, and expects the rating agencies to assign a relatively high speculative-grade rating.
Anthropic published its S-1 registration statement on the 26th of the month and confirmed a November listing. The filing shows $112 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a targeted IPO raise of roughly $100 billion (above the $85.7 billion SpaceX raised on Nasdaq in June), and plans to invest more than $800 billion in AI infrastructure through 2045. First-half revenue was $16.3 billion, up 14 times year over year, and the operating loss narrowed to $693 million. Of an $80.7 billion net loss, $72.4 billion was a non-cash valuation loss on convertible notes. Borrowings were $6.2 billion at the end of June.
Project North Star is structured to work around the rating gap. A special purpose vehicle buys 1.5 GW of Google TPUs designed by Broadcom and leases them to Anthropic. The senior loan of about $45 billion, arranged by Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley, is backed by a Broadcom guarantee of more than $42 billion, which makes it accessible to insurers and pension funds. The $18 billion subordinated tranche carries KBRA BB+ (positive) and Morningstar DBRS BB ratings. According to documents reviewed by the Financial Times, KBRA assigned Anthropic a BB+ rating (stable outlook) in June, one notch below the BBB- threshold at S&P and Fitch.
The cost of sub-investment-grade status is visible in pricing. The $9 billion subordinated tranche bought by Blackstone yielded above 10%, compared with an effective yield of 6.69% on the ICE BofA BB index and 6.01% on the BBB index as of October 29, though the source cautions that subordination and index composition limit direct comparison. Anthropic also faces large compute commitments: about $114.5 billion to Google Cloud through 2033, $125 billion to $150 billion in TPU access payments between 2028 and 2031, and about $110 billion to Amazon through 2036.
The primary report notes that Anthropic has not received official ratings from S&P, Moody's or Fitch, and that Blackstone's view came from an investor briefing rather than an agency action. Japanese capital is also part of the picture: Nippon Life plans to raise its infrastructure loans, including for AI data centers, to about $12.7 billion by 2035, and Japan's Financial Services Agency named project finance for data centers a priority monitoring target on September 15, 2026.
Anthropic published its S-1 registration statement on the 26th of the month and confirmed a November listing. The filing shows $112 billion in cash and cash equivalents, a targeted IPO raise of roughly $100 billion (above the $85.7 billion SpaceX raised on Nasdaq in June), and plans to invest more than $800 billion in AI infrastructure through 2045. First-half revenue was $16.3 billion, up 14 times year over year, and the operating loss narrowed to $693 million. Of an $80.7 billion net loss, $72.4 billion was a non-cash valuation loss on convertible notes. Borrowings were $6.2 billion at the end of June.
Project North Star is structured to work around the rating gap. A special purpose vehicle buys 1.5 GW of Google TPUs designed by Broadcom and leases them to Anthropic. The senior loan of about $45 billion, arranged by Bank of America, Citi and Morgan Stanley, is backed by a Broadcom guarantee of more than $42 billion, which makes it accessible to insurers and pension funds. The $18 billion subordinated tranche carries KBRA BB+ (positive) and Morningstar DBRS BB ratings. According to documents reviewed by the Financial Times, KBRA assigned Anthropic a BB+ rating (stable outlook) in June, one notch below the BBB- threshold at S&P and Fitch.
The cost of sub-investment-grade status is visible in pricing. The $9 billion subordinated tranche bought by Blackstone yielded above 10%, compared with an effective yield of 6.69% on the ICE BofA BB index and 6.01% on the BBB index as of October 29, though the source cautions that subordination and index composition limit direct comparison. Anthropic also faces large compute commitments: about $114.5 billion to Google Cloud through 2033, $125 billion to $150 billion in TPU access payments between 2028 and 2031, and about $110 billion to Amazon through 2036.
The primary report notes that Anthropic has not received official ratings from S&P, Moody's or Fitch, and that Blackstone's view came from an investor briefing rather than an agency action. Japanese capital is also part of the picture: Nippon Life plans to raise its infrastructure loans, including for AI data centers, to about $12.7 billion by 2035, and Japan's Financial Services Agency named project finance for data centers a priority monitoring target on September 15, 2026.
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