Key Takeaways
- • Johnson Associates projects 2026 front-office bonuses across financial services will rise between 5% and over 30% versus 2025, varying by function.
- • Equities sales & trading and equities capital markets are expected to see the largest increases, at least 20% on average and potentially more than 30%.
- • Private credit bonuses could fall as much as 7.5%, while private equity bonuses are forecast flat to up 7.5%, reflecting a difficult year for private capital.
- • Blue Owl and Ares stock declines of 32% and 16% year-to-date, respectively, underpin the weak private credit outlook, driven by software firm devaluations.
- • Middle- and back-office corporate and support functions such as compliance, risk and audit are expected to see bonus increases of only mid-single digits at most.
Summary
Banks have had a strong 2026, with revenues rising, particularly in equities sales & trading and investment banking, and double-digit returns on equity described as the norm, according to eFinancialCareers. Hiring has been limited, but job cuts have also been relatively few.
New research from New York compensation consultancy Johnson Associates projects that 2026 bonuses across financial services will rise by anywhere from 5% to more than 30% versus 2025 for front-office professionals, depending on function. The largest increases are expected in equities, including equities sales & trading and equities capital markets, where bonuses are forecast to rise by at least 20% on average and possibly more than 30%.
Private capital is the notable laggard. Private equity bonuses are expected to be flat or up by just 7.5%, while private credit bonuses could be down by as much as 7.5%. Johnson Associates attributes the weakness in private credit to a difficult year marked by software firm devaluations and significant stock declines. Shares of Blue Owl and Ares, two of the largest private credit firms globally, are down 32% and 16% year-to-date, respectively.
Other functions show more varied outcomes. M&A professionals may see bonuses rise 15% to 20%, while asset management and wealth management professionals could see increases of 7.5% to 15%, depending on product type. Firm management is expected to see increases of 10% to 20%. Chris Connors, a managing director at Johnson Associates, said corporate and support functions in middle- and back-office roles, including compliance, risk and audit, will likely see only modest increases of mid-single digits at most, despite strong results and headcount reductions at some banks. Connors said these groups had "managed expenses really well" and that he "would have thought that incentives might be up a little bit higher."
New research from New York compensation consultancy Johnson Associates projects that 2026 bonuses across financial services will rise by anywhere from 5% to more than 30% versus 2025 for front-office professionals, depending on function. The largest increases are expected in equities, including equities sales & trading and equities capital markets, where bonuses are forecast to rise by at least 20% on average and possibly more than 30%.
Private capital is the notable laggard. Private equity bonuses are expected to be flat or up by just 7.5%, while private credit bonuses could be down by as much as 7.5%. Johnson Associates attributes the weakness in private credit to a difficult year marked by software firm devaluations and significant stock declines. Shares of Blue Owl and Ares, two of the largest private credit firms globally, are down 32% and 16% year-to-date, respectively.
Other functions show more varied outcomes. M&A professionals may see bonuses rise 15% to 20%, while asset management and wealth management professionals could see increases of 7.5% to 15%, depending on product type. Firm management is expected to see increases of 10% to 20%. Chris Connors, a managing director at Johnson Associates, said corporate and support functions in middle- and back-office roles, including compliance, risk and audit, will likely see only modest increases of mid-single digits at most, despite strong results and headcount reductions at some banks. Connors said these groups had "managed expenses really well" and that he "would have thought that incentives might be up a little bit higher."
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