Key Takeaways
- • XRP founder-backed promoter Adam Kagy of the xrp.cafe NFT marketplace claimed XRP has gained roughly 22,000% over its lifetime, with an average annual return above 66% over 10 years, outperforming Bitcoin and most major tech stocks on that measure.
- • Critics argue the 10-year figures are heavily skewed by the 2016–2017 rally; from a January 2018 starting point, Bitcoin gained about 357.87% while XRP lost about 65.36% through October 2026.
- • Using October 2026 prices of $81,100 for Bitcoin and $1.33 for XRP, the outcome depends on entry date: XRP returned an estimated 71.6% annualized from October 2016 versus Bitcoin's 61.1%, but Bitcoin returned about 32.4% annualized from October 2017 versus XRP's 18.4%.
- • A $1,000 investment at January 2018 monthly highs would be worth roughly $4,579 in Bitcoin versus $346 in XRP as of the story date.
- • XRP remains below its reported all-time high of $3.84 set in January 2018, while Bitcoin has set new all-time highs across multiple cycles.
Summary
Adam Kagy, founder of xrp.cafe, an XRP-focused NFT marketplace, argued in a post on X that investors complaining about slow XRP price growth are overlooking the asset's past gains. He cited a lifetime gain of around 22,000% and an average annual return of more than 66% over 10 years, and claimed XRP outperformed Bitcoin and most major technology stocks over that period. Kagy's comparison listed annualized 10-year returns of roughly 62% for Nvidia, 29% for Apple, 24–25% for Microsoft, 23% for Alphabet, 19–20% for Amazon, 20% for the Nasdaq-100, 15–17% for Meta, and 15.5% for the S&P 500.
Critics challenged the framing, arguing that the result is driven almost entirely by the starting date and XRP's sharp rise during the 2016–2017 crypto bull market. Several users on X said the returns do not reflect the experience of investors who bought at higher prices. One user, Benny (@bennyblkchain), said XRP is down more than 60% from its 2017 level and that most assets have since outperformed it. Another user, Blake H. Preston, questioned the 22,000% figure as not representative of what most XRP investors actually earned.
The publication's own calculations, using approximate October 2026 prices of $81,100 for Bitcoin and $1.33 for XRP, show how sensitive the comparison is to timing. From October 2016 to October 2026, XRP's estimated annual return was 71.6% versus 61.1% for Bitcoin. From October 2017, Bitcoin returned about 32.4% annually against 18.4% for XRP. From January 2018, Bitcoin gained approximately 357.87% while XRP lost about 65.36%. A $1,000 position opened at the January 2018 monthly highs would now be worth about $4,579 in Bitcoin and $346 in XRP.
The publication also noted that Kagy's comparison omits Bitcoin's reported lifetime gain of roughly 131 million percent, far above XRP's 22,000%. Bitcoin has set new all-time highs across several market cycles despite significant drawdowns, while XRP remains below its reported all-time high of $3.84 from January 2018. The article concludes that entry timing, holding period and exit timing determine outcomes far more than headline lifetime or decade-long return figures.
Critics challenged the framing, arguing that the result is driven almost entirely by the starting date and XRP's sharp rise during the 2016–2017 crypto bull market. Several users on X said the returns do not reflect the experience of investors who bought at higher prices. One user, Benny (@bennyblkchain), said XRP is down more than 60% from its 2017 level and that most assets have since outperformed it. Another user, Blake H. Preston, questioned the 22,000% figure as not representative of what most XRP investors actually earned.
The publication's own calculations, using approximate October 2026 prices of $81,100 for Bitcoin and $1.33 for XRP, show how sensitive the comparison is to timing. From October 2016 to October 2026, XRP's estimated annual return was 71.6% versus 61.1% for Bitcoin. From October 2017, Bitcoin returned about 32.4% annually against 18.4% for XRP. From January 2018, Bitcoin gained approximately 357.87% while XRP lost about 65.36%. A $1,000 position opened at the January 2018 monthly highs would now be worth about $4,579 in Bitcoin and $346 in XRP.
The publication also noted that Kagy's comparison omits Bitcoin's reported lifetime gain of roughly 131 million percent, far above XRP's 22,000%. Bitcoin has set new all-time highs across several market cycles despite significant drawdowns, while XRP remains below its reported all-time high of $3.84 from January 2018. The article concludes that entry timing, holding period and exit timing determine outcomes far more than headline lifetime or decade-long return figures.
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