Key Takeaways
- • US Tiger Securities upgraded Coinbase Global to Buy from Hold with a $200 price target, citing a more constructive view on the cryptocurrency cycle's risk-reward profile and belief that Bitcoin has entered the final quartile of its bear-market phase.
- • Bitcoin has experienced a 54% drawdown from its October 2025 cycle high, with the analyst noting that on-chain profitability has materially reset and the market has already experienced approximately three meaningful realized-loss capitulation waves.
- • US Tiger Securities maintains a Hold rating on Circle Internet Group, distinguishing its view of Coinbase from its more cautious stance on the stablecoin provider despite broader crypto cycle recovery expectations.
- • Baird projects Coinbase's second-quarter revenue will decline approximately 8% below Wall Street consensus estimates, driven by a 22% sequential drop in cryptocurrency trading volumes, tempering some optimism around the upgrade.
- • The upgrade reflects analyst Bo Pei's conviction that the largest portion of cycle de-risking is already complete, positioning remaining upside exposure to liquidity recovery, institutional allocation expansion, and broader crypto risk appetite in the next cycle phase.
Summary
US Tiger Securities upgraded Coinbase Global to Buy from Hold on Tuesday with a $200 price target, signaling increased confidence in the digital asset exchange operator as the cryptocurrency market moves through a critical phase of its cycle. According to analyst Bo Pei, the upgrade reflects a more constructive assessment of the sector's risk-reward dynamics, premised on the belief that Bitcoin has likely entered the final quartile of its current bear-market process.
The bullish thesis rests on quantifiable evidence of cycle bottoming. Bitcoin has declined approximately 54% from its October 2025 cycle peak, accompanied by material reset in on-chain profitability metrics and three distinct realized-loss capitulation waves. While US Tiger Securities explicitly disclaims the ability to call an exact market bottom, the firm contends that the largest share of cycle de-risking has already occurred. The analyst characterized remaining downside risk as increasingly typical of late-bear-market conditions rather than structural deterioration, positioning the firm to capture upside in the anticipated recovery phase driven by liquidity normalization, institutional capital allocation, and renewed risk appetite in digital assets.
However, the upgrade to Coinbase occurs alongside mixed signals from other research shops. Baird maintained a Neutral rating and projects second-quarter revenue will fall approximately 8% short of consensus expectations, attributing the shortfall to a 22% sequential decline in cryptocurrency trading volumes. This headwind underscores that while sentiment on the macro crypto cycle has shifted positive, near-term trading activity and revenue generation remain subdued.
Notably, US Tiger Securities maintained a Hold rating on Circle Internet Group, the stablecoin issuer, demonstrating differentiation in the firm's thesis between exchange operators poised to benefit from institutional capital inflows and other crypto infrastructure players. Morgan Stanley similarly noted that Coinbase's involvement in the Open Standard consortium is unlikely to disrupt its partnership renewal discussions with Circle, suggesting platform relationships remain intact despite competitive dynamics in the stablecoin space.
The upgrade reflects growing consensus among institutional analysts that the cryptocurrency sector has transitioned from capitulation to early recovery, with Coinbase positioned as a primary beneficiary of subsequent institutional and retail capital reallocation during the next cycle upswing.
The bullish thesis rests on quantifiable evidence of cycle bottoming. Bitcoin has declined approximately 54% from its October 2025 cycle peak, accompanied by material reset in on-chain profitability metrics and three distinct realized-loss capitulation waves. While US Tiger Securities explicitly disclaims the ability to call an exact market bottom, the firm contends that the largest share of cycle de-risking has already occurred. The analyst characterized remaining downside risk as increasingly typical of late-bear-market conditions rather than structural deterioration, positioning the firm to capture upside in the anticipated recovery phase driven by liquidity normalization, institutional capital allocation, and renewed risk appetite in digital assets.
However, the upgrade to Coinbase occurs alongside mixed signals from other research shops. Baird maintained a Neutral rating and projects second-quarter revenue will fall approximately 8% short of consensus expectations, attributing the shortfall to a 22% sequential decline in cryptocurrency trading volumes. This headwind underscores that while sentiment on the macro crypto cycle has shifted positive, near-term trading activity and revenue generation remain subdued.
Notably, US Tiger Securities maintained a Hold rating on Circle Internet Group, the stablecoin issuer, demonstrating differentiation in the firm's thesis between exchange operators poised to benefit from institutional capital inflows and other crypto infrastructure players. Morgan Stanley similarly noted that Coinbase's involvement in the Open Standard consortium is unlikely to disrupt its partnership renewal discussions with Circle, suggesting platform relationships remain intact despite competitive dynamics in the stablecoin space.
The upgrade reflects growing consensus among institutional analysts that the cryptocurrency sector has transitioned from capitulation to early recovery, with Coinbase positioned as a primary beneficiary of subsequent institutional and retail capital reallocation during the next cycle upswing.
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