Key Takeaways
- • Robinhood and Crypto.com have both launched serious prediction market operations, with Robinhood recording nearly $1 billion in trading volume during Q2 2025 and volume doubling each quarter to reach $2.3 billion in a recent quarter, signaling rapid institutional and retail adoption.
- • Robinhood initially partnered with Kalshi for prediction market contracts but is transitioning to its own proprietary exchange infrastructure, while Crypto.com built and fully owns its prediction market exchange from inception, reflecting fundamentally different strategic approaches to market control and economics.
- • Crypto.com spun out its prediction markets business into a standalone platform in February 2026 after the in-app feature achieved 40x weekly growth over six months, complete with dedicated app, leadership team, and social features like leaderboards.
- • Prediction markets represent a significant revenue diversification strategy for both platforms: Robinhood's crypto business revenue declined 47% in recent earnings, but the shift toward prediction markets has supported overall platform revenue growth and established a more consistent, recurring revenue stream.
- • Both platforms face regulatory scrutiny, with reports indicating they may be operating unlicensed sports wagering operations that could violate state law, presenting material legal and compliance risks alongside their growth trajectories.
Summary
Two major trading platforms—Robinhood Markets and Crypto.com—have moved aggressively into prediction markets, establishing what appears to be a significant new asset class for retail and institutional investors. Robinhood recorded nearly $1 billion in prediction market trading volume during Q2 2025, with more recent quarterly volume reaching $2.3 billion as trading has doubled sequentially. This growth trajectory reflects both organic user adoption and deliberate product expansion strategies at a scale that institutional investors should monitor closely.
The two platforms have taken divergent paths to market dominance. Robinhood initially relied on Kalshi to provide prediction market contracts and infrastructure, but is actively transitioning volume to its own proprietary exchange as it builds internal capabilities. Crypto.com, leveraging its existing infrastructure as a crypto exchange, built and fully owns its prediction market exchange from day one. Crypto.com's approach proved successful enough that in February 2026 the company spun out its prediction markets business into a standalone platform with dedicated engineering, product, and leadership teams. The original in-app feature, launched in December 2024, demonstrated explosive adoption with 40x weekly growth over six months before the spinout.
For both platforms, prediction markets address a critical revenue challenge: Robinhood's crypto business revenue declined 47% in its most recent earnings report, forcing the company to seek alternative high-margin revenue sources. Prediction markets offer more consistent, recurring revenue relative to the cyclical volatility of crypto trading. Robinhood's existing user scale provides deeper liquidity today, while Crypto.com's independent platform and dedicated infrastructure represent longer-term structural advantages.
Regulatory risk represents a material constraint on this growth narrative. Multiple sources indicate that Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi may be operating unlicensed sports wagering operations in violation of state law. This compliance exposure could materially impact platform operations, licensing, or user access across multiple jurisdictions and should be a primary consideration for institutional investors evaluating exposure to these platforms' prediction market segments.
The two platforms have taken divergent paths to market dominance. Robinhood initially relied on Kalshi to provide prediction market contracts and infrastructure, but is actively transitioning volume to its own proprietary exchange as it builds internal capabilities. Crypto.com, leveraging its existing infrastructure as a crypto exchange, built and fully owns its prediction market exchange from day one. Crypto.com's approach proved successful enough that in February 2026 the company spun out its prediction markets business into a standalone platform with dedicated engineering, product, and leadership teams. The original in-app feature, launched in December 2024, demonstrated explosive adoption with 40x weekly growth over six months before the spinout.
For both platforms, prediction markets address a critical revenue challenge: Robinhood's crypto business revenue declined 47% in its most recent earnings report, forcing the company to seek alternative high-margin revenue sources. Prediction markets offer more consistent, recurring revenue relative to the cyclical volatility of crypto trading. Robinhood's existing user scale provides deeper liquidity today, while Crypto.com's independent platform and dedicated infrastructure represent longer-term structural advantages.
Regulatory risk represents a material constraint on this growth narrative. Multiple sources indicate that Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Kalshi may be operating unlicensed sports wagering operations in violation of state law. This compliance exposure could materially impact platform operations, licensing, or user access across multiple jurisdictions and should be a primary consideration for institutional investors evaluating exposure to these platforms' prediction market segments.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.