Key Takeaways
- • Robinhood missed on both revenue ($1.42 billion versus $1.43 billion expected) and EPS ($0.51 versus $0.55 forecast), though revenue was a record and crypto revenue beat expectations at $120 million, up 20% sequentially from $100 million in Q2.
- • Event contracts reached $173 million in revenue on a record 16.4 billion contracts traded, more than seven times the level a year earlier, with prediction markets and crypto together accounting for more than a fifth of Robinhood's revenue.
- • Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said Robinhood Chain has outrun internal forecasts, generating more fees over a rolling 30 days than Ethereum or Base by late August, and that the company is "doubling down" on investment in the chain, which launched July 1.
- • Robinhood Chain ecosystem tokens rallied 20-57% on the day following the call, with Orbio up 57%, AI (Long) up 33% and Pons up 18%.
- • Bitcoin ETFs logged $176 million in net inflows on the day while Ether ETFs saw $60 million in outflows, with BTC trading near $81.3k ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Summary
Robinhood missed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings per share for the quarter reported on Tuesday, according to the Decrypt Morning Minute newsletter, which is written by Tyler Warner and reflects his own analysis. Total revenue came in at a record $1.42 billion, slightly below the $1.43 billion consensus, while EPS was $0.51 against a $0.55 forecast. Crypto revenue rose to $120 million from $100 million in the prior quarter, up 20% sequentially, but remained 55% below the $268 million reported a year earlier. Trading volume reached $50 billion, of which $29 billion ran through Bitstamp.
Event contracts emerged as a larger business line, generating $173 million, up from $156 million, on a record 16.4 billion contracts traded. Combined with crypto, the newsletter notes that more than a fifth of Robinhood's revenue now comes from products that barely existed two years ago.
The more significant development, according to the report, came during the earnings call. Tenev acknowledged that Robinhood Chain, which launched July 1, had outpaced internal forecasts, and said the company had to add staff to keep pace with demand from builders. He indicated the company would increase investment in the ecosystem and floated future possibilities such as tokenized options contracts built on programmable stock tokens. Market reaction was strong: Robinhood Chain-related tokens rose sharply, with Orbio up 57%, AI (Long) up 33% and Pons up 18%. Third-party projects such as Long.xyz and Orbio are building on tokenized equities, and Robinhood Crypto posted two tweets supporting Long and Priors.
Broader market conditions were firmer, with major cryptocurrencies rebounding 2-4% ahead of the FOMC meeting. Bitcoin traded near $81.2k, Ether near $2,360, and Bitcoin ETFs recorded $176 million in net inflows. Other items noted in the newsletter included Ripple receiving final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank, Google opening a private preview of a bank-oriented crypto custody service targeted for commercial availability in early 2027, and Bithumb disclosing a data breach affecting personal information.
Event contracts emerged as a larger business line, generating $173 million, up from $156 million, on a record 16.4 billion contracts traded. Combined with crypto, the newsletter notes that more than a fifth of Robinhood's revenue now comes from products that barely existed two years ago.
The more significant development, according to the report, came during the earnings call. Tenev acknowledged that Robinhood Chain, which launched July 1, had outpaced internal forecasts, and said the company had to add staff to keep pace with demand from builders. He indicated the company would increase investment in the ecosystem and floated future possibilities such as tokenized options contracts built on programmable stock tokens. Market reaction was strong: Robinhood Chain-related tokens rose sharply, with Orbio up 57%, AI (Long) up 33% and Pons up 18%. Third-party projects such as Long.xyz and Orbio are building on tokenized equities, and Robinhood Crypto posted two tweets supporting Long and Priors.
Broader market conditions were firmer, with major cryptocurrencies rebounding 2-4% ahead of the FOMC meeting. Bitcoin traded near $81.2k, Ether near $2,360, and Bitcoin ETFs recorded $176 million in net inflows. Other items noted in the newsletter included Ripple receiving final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank, Google opening a private preview of a bank-oriented crypto custody service targeted for commercial availability in early 2027, and Bithumb disclosing a data breach affecting personal information.
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