Key Takeaways
- • JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions project a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin, versus 7.5% for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold.
- • The forecast assigns Bitcoin an annualized volatility of 55%, substantially above stocks and gold, and JPMorgan did not include Bitcoin in its main covariance matrices, citing volatility and unstable correlation.
- • Bitwise's Matt Hougan welcomed the inclusion, while Peter Schiff continued to urge investors to sell Bitcoin and buy gold.
- • Using an illustrative $80,000 starting price, the 10% return implies roughly $207,500 after 10 years and $334,200 after 15 years.
- • BlackRock filed for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF (ticker PBIT), its third Bitcoin ETF filing, which would gain exposure through derivatives and offer downside buffers in exchange for capped upside.
Summary
JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to outperform stocks and gold over the long term, according to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, as cited by CCN. The firm projects a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin, compared with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks and 5.5% for gold. The assumptions assign Bitcoin an annualized volatility of 55%, well above the figures for the other two assets. JPMorgan stopped short of incorporating Bitcoin into its main covariance matrices, which are used to assess how investments move together within a portfolio. The firm stated that "the volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios."
Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast on X, while acknowledging its caveats. The forecast also renews attention to the gap between JPMorgan's expanding crypto business and CEO Jamie Dimon's long-standing skepticism, which CCN has previously documented, including Dimon's 2017 description of Bitcoin as a "fraud" and his January 2025 description of it as a "Ponzi scheme." In May 2025, Dimon said JPMorgan would let clients buy Bitcoin while maintaining his personal reservations.
Peter Schiff, a longtime Bitcoin critic, offered a contrasting view, urging investors in an October 14 post to sell Bitcoin and buy gold, citing rising inflation and bond yields. CCN noted that Schiff's warnings focus on a near-term downturn, whereas JPMorgan's forecast covers compound returns over 10 to 15 years.
Using an illustrative starting price of $80,000, a 10% compound annual return would imply approximately $207,500 after 10 years and roughly $334,200 after 15 years, according to CCN's calculations. CCN cautions that these are illustrative figures dependent on the starting price and on the projected return being achieved. Risks cited include weakening institutional demand, ETF outflows, tighter regulation, prolonged high interest rates, and exchange failures or security breaches.
Separately, BlackRock has filed for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, proposed ticker PBIT. According to the prospectus, the fund would not invest directly in Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchange-traded products, and would instead gain exposure through derivatives. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart described it as a buffer product offering downside protection in exchange for giving up some upside. It would be BlackRock's third Bitcoin ETF filing, and the firm currently offers only Bitcoin and Ethereum products. CCN also noted that Larry Fink's 2025 annual letter said the firm's IBIT had grown to more than $50 billion in assets in under a year, with more than half of its demand from retail investors.
Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast on X, while acknowledging its caveats. The forecast also renews attention to the gap between JPMorgan's expanding crypto business and CEO Jamie Dimon's long-standing skepticism, which CCN has previously documented, including Dimon's 2017 description of Bitcoin as a "fraud" and his January 2025 description of it as a "Ponzi scheme." In May 2025, Dimon said JPMorgan would let clients buy Bitcoin while maintaining his personal reservations.
Peter Schiff, a longtime Bitcoin critic, offered a contrasting view, urging investors in an October 14 post to sell Bitcoin and buy gold, citing rising inflation and bond yields. CCN noted that Schiff's warnings focus on a near-term downturn, whereas JPMorgan's forecast covers compound returns over 10 to 15 years.
Using an illustrative starting price of $80,000, a 10% compound annual return would imply approximately $207,500 after 10 years and roughly $334,200 after 15 years, according to CCN's calculations. CCN cautions that these are illustrative figures dependent on the starting price and on the projected return being achieved. Risks cited include weakening institutional demand, ETF outflows, tighter regulation, prolonged high interest rates, and exchange failures or security breaches.
Separately, BlackRock has filed for the iShares Bitcoin Managed Protection ETF, proposed ticker PBIT. According to the prospectus, the fund would not invest directly in Bitcoin or Bitcoin exchange-traded products, and would instead gain exposure through derivatives. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart described it as a buffer product offering downside protection in exchange for giving up some upside. It would be BlackRock's third Bitcoin ETF filing, and the firm currently offers only Bitcoin and Ethereum products. CCN also noted that Larry Fink's 2025 annual letter said the firm's IBIT had grown to more than $50 billion in assets in under a year, with more than half of its demand from retail investors.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.