Key Takeaways
- • JPMorgan Asset Management included bitcoin in its long-term capital-market assumptions for the first time, projecting a 10% annual compounded return over the next 10 to 15 years in its base case.
- • The base-case forecast places bitcoin ahead of US large-cap equities (7.5%), US REITs (8.2%), gold (5.5%), and bonds in the bank's framework.
- • The bitcoin range runs from a bearish scenario of 9.7% annually to a bullish case of up to 17% per year.
- • The report estimates bitcoin volatility at roughly 55%, far above equities, bonds, and gold, and flags unstable correlations as a major obstacle to portfolio inclusion.
- • Bitcoin has not been added to JPMorgan's main covariance matrices; the bank provides a separate, smaller matrix for bitcoin against selected public-market assets.
Summary
JPMorgan Asset Management has included bitcoin in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for the first time in the report's more than 30-year history, forecasting a 10% annual compounded return for the asset over the next 10 to 15 years, according to the report as cited by CryptoPotato. The base-case projection would place bitcoin above US large-cap stocks, which the bank expects to return 7.5% annually, US real estate investment trusts at 8.2%, gold at 5.5%, and bonds. The move is notable given that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon had previously been a frequent critic of the cryptocurrency.
The bank's analysis presents a wide range of outcomes. The bearish scenario envisions an annual return of 9.7%, while the bullish case reaches up to 17% per year. The assumptions cover more than 200 asset classes and are designed for strategic portfolio planning rather than short-term trading or price prediction.
JPMorgan's analysts nonetheless emphasized bitcoin's risk characteristics. The report estimates the asset's volatility at around 55%, well above equities, bonds, and gold, and stresses that bitcoin's unstable correlation with other assets remains a major obstacle to strategic portfolio inclusion. As a result, bitcoin has not been added to the bank's main covariance matrices, although JPMorgan now provides a separate, smaller matrix covering bitcoin against selected public-market assets.
The 10% figure is a long-term expected-return assumption used in portfolio modeling. It is not a price target, an allocation recommendation, or a guarantee that bitcoin will outperform stocks.
The bank's analysis presents a wide range of outcomes. The bearish scenario envisions an annual return of 9.7%, while the bullish case reaches up to 17% per year. The assumptions cover more than 200 asset classes and are designed for strategic portfolio planning rather than short-term trading or price prediction.
JPMorgan's analysts nonetheless emphasized bitcoin's risk characteristics. The report estimates the asset's volatility at around 55%, well above equities, bonds, and gold, and stresses that bitcoin's unstable correlation with other assets remains a major obstacle to strategic portfolio inclusion. As a result, bitcoin has not been added to the bank's main covariance matrices, although JPMorgan now provides a separate, smaller matrix covering bitcoin against selected public-market assets.
The 10% figure is a long-term expected-return assumption used in portfolio modeling. It is not a price target, an allocation recommendation, or a guarantee that bitcoin will outperform stocks.
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