Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Research says Bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 and that Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026, after 44 weeks below it, with the week ended Oct. 18 marking the fifth straight weekly close above the line.
- • Galaxy's report, "Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC," first went to clients of Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management on Oct. 22, 2026, and concludes "we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."
- • Galaxy cites historical data showing that the four prior reclaims after spells of 20 weeks or more saw Bitcoin never close more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year, with one-year gains of 1,497%, 128%, 55% and 142%.
- • Galaxy calls this the shallowest bear market on record, with a 53% peak-to-low drawdown versus 77% to 93% in earlier cycles, and the first in which price never fell below the network's cost basis (MVRV low of 1.10).
- • Galaxy lists four invalidation triggers, including a weekly close below the 50-week average (now $76,540) not regained within a month, and spot ETF holdings falling below their July 13 low of 1.22 million BTC.
Summary
Galaxy Research, led by head of firmwide research Alex Thorn, has concluded that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June 2026 and that the asset is now in "the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance." The report, titled "Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC," was first sent on Oct. 22, 2026 to clients of Galaxy Trading and Galaxy Asset Management, a firm with both a trading desk and an asset management business.
The central argument rests on the 50-week moving average, which Galaxy says Bitcoin lost in the week ended Nov. 16, 2025, staying below it for 44 weeks before closing back above it in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026. On Oct. 22, Bitcoin traded at $81,391, 3% below the prior day's close of $84,176, roughly 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above its June 30, 2026 low. Galaxy notes that of 13 reclaims since 2011, the four that followed spells of 20 weeks or more saw no close more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the next year, while seven of nine reclaims after shorter stretches later fell more than 25%.
Galaxy also characterizes the downturn as historically shallow. Bitcoin fell 53% from peak to low, compared with declines of 93%, 85%, 84% and 77% in earlier bear markets. It was the first cycle in which the price never fell below the network's cost basis, measured by MVRV, which bottomed at 1.10 versus past lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75. The cycle low arrived on day 802 after the halving, within the timing pattern of prior cycles, which hit their lows on days 777, 889 and 912.
On holder behavior, Galaxy reports that short-term holders, with an average cost of $74,811, sit about 9% in profit yet are not selling, with the spent-output profit ratio at 1.009, which Galaxy describes as "no profit-taking wave." Coins dormant five years or more moved at 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, half the 2024 pace. In CME futures, asset managers' net long fell 57% from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, leveraged funds' net short shrank from 71,400 to 30,600 BTC, and open interest fell 51% in dollar terms.
Galaxy sets these signals against fiscal conditions, citing federal debt of $40.44 trillion as of Oct. 20, a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion (6.2% of GDP), and a 10-year Treasury yield that reached 5.31% on Oct. 5. The report identifies four developments that would invalidate its call: a weekly close below the 50-week average, now $76,540, not regained within a month; spot ETF holdings falling below their July 13 low of 1.22 million BTC; a credible, dated path to a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptography; and a US move to cut its deficit. With Bitcoin about 6% above the $76,540 level at Thursday's price, a weekly close below that line is the nearest test. Galaxy states that Bitcoin "has proven its ability to run to at least $125k" and sees "no reason why it can't retake that level," presented as the firm's view rather than a dated forecast.
The central argument rests on the 50-week moving average, which Galaxy says Bitcoin lost in the week ended Nov. 16, 2025, staying below it for 44 weeks before closing back above it in the week ended Sept. 20, 2026. On Oct. 22, Bitcoin traded at $81,391, 3% below the prior day's close of $84,176, roughly 35% below its October 2025 high and 39% above its June 30, 2026 low. Galaxy notes that of 13 reclaims since 2011, the four that followed spells of 20 weeks or more saw no close more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the next year, while seven of nine reclaims after shorter stretches later fell more than 25%.
Galaxy also characterizes the downturn as historically shallow. Bitcoin fell 53% from peak to low, compared with declines of 93%, 85%, 84% and 77% in earlier bear markets. It was the first cycle in which the price never fell below the network's cost basis, measured by MVRV, which bottomed at 1.10 versus past lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75. The cycle low arrived on day 802 after the halving, within the timing pattern of prior cycles, which hit their lows on days 777, 889 and 912.
On holder behavior, Galaxy reports that short-term holders, with an average cost of $74,811, sit about 9% in profit yet are not selling, with the spent-output profit ratio at 1.009, which Galaxy describes as "no profit-taking wave." Coins dormant five years or more moved at 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, half the 2024 pace. In CME futures, asset managers' net long fell 57% from 43,300 BTC to 18,400 BTC, leveraged funds' net short shrank from 71,400 to 30,600 BTC, and open interest fell 51% in dollar terms.
Galaxy sets these signals against fiscal conditions, citing federal debt of $40.44 trillion as of Oct. 20, a fiscal 2026 deficit of $1.99 trillion (6.2% of GDP), and a 10-year Treasury yield that reached 5.31% on Oct. 5. The report identifies four developments that would invalidate its call: a weekly close below the 50-week average, now $76,540, not regained within a month; spot ETF holdings falling below their July 13 low of 1.22 million BTC; a credible, dated path to a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptography; and a US move to cut its deficit. With Bitcoin about 6% above the $76,540 level at Thursday's price, a weekly close below that line is the nearest test. Galaxy states that Bitcoin "has proven its ability to run to at least $125k" and sees "no reason why it can't retake that level," presented as the firm's view rather than a dated forecast.
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