Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin fell below $80,000, trading at $79,456.75 as of 10:46 WIB (03:46 UTC) on October 26, 2026, down 3.58% over seven days, after the October 25 daily close of $80,024.01 broke the $80,300 invalidation level flagged by Pintu since October 12.
- • Tech stocks triggered the sell-off: the Nasdaq fell 2.6% on October 22 on AI spending concerns, and BTC fell 3.2% the same day from $84,011.97 to $81,311.89.
- • Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.07 billion from October 19 to 21, then recorded $773.5 million in outflows on October 22 and 23, according to the primary source.
- • Brent crude closed at $116.72 on October 23 on Middle East risk, and markets still price a 69.4% probability of a Fed rate hike in December per CME FedWatch.
- • Pintu's base case is BTC trading between $75,600 and $82,000 with a downside bias; a daily close below the 100-day SMA at $75,600 would invalidate that view, with the 200-day SMA near $73,000 as the next target.
Summary
Bitcoin lost the $80,000 level on October 25 and traded at $79,456.75 on October 26, 2026, down 3.58% over seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data cited by Pintu. Ethereum (ETH) fell 4.97% over the same period to $2,299.89 and Solana (SOL) fell 4.76% to $100.13. Total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.66 trillion, and CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index read 43.
The sell-off followed a risk-off move in US equities. On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% to 26,008.86 and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, according to FinanceFeeds, after Meta shares dropped 6.98% when its AI capital spending plans revived concerns about an AI bubble. Pintu argues that the pressure on Bitcoin came from declining risk appetite rather than from rising Treasury yields, noting that the 10-year yield closed near 4.95% to 4.96% on October 22, below the 5.06% level noted in its October 19 edition.
Flows and derivatives data point to weakening demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.07 billion from October 19 to 21 before posting $773.5 million in outflows on October 22 and 23. CryptoQuant data show BTC exchange netflow of +7,997 BTC for October 19 to 25, up from +1,185 BTC the prior week, which Pintu notes is often read as preparation to sell. CoinGlass data show BTC futures liquidations of $624.3 million for the week, with 69.5% from long positions, while futures open interest stood at $53.20 billion, still 1.8% above the start of the week even as price fell 2.4%. Pintu warns that this leverage could amplify moves when the Fed decision and PCE data are released.
Energy prices added to inflation concerns. Brent closed at $116.72 a barrel on October 23, up 3.1% on the day, and was trading near $114 on the morning of October 26, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was evacuating personnel from several Middle East posts because US intelligence assessed Iran was preparing attacks on Americans. CME FedWatch data show 90.6% odds that the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 28 (US time) meeting, and a 69.4% probability of a hike in December.
On the technical side, Pintu flags $81,800 to $82,000 as resistance, where the 20-day and 50-day SMAs converge, and $75,600 (100-day SMA) as near-term support, followed by $73,000 (200-day SMA). The RSI of 40 leans toward sellers without being oversold. For Ethereum, the Ethereum Foundation called off the Glamsterdam upgrade activation on the Hoodi testnet, scheduled for October 26, and no new date has been set. ETH trades slightly below its 100-day SMA ($2,321) with the 200-day SMA at $2,158 as key support, and an RSI of 32.1.
The sell-off followed a risk-off move in US equities. On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% to 26,008.86 and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, according to FinanceFeeds, after Meta shares dropped 6.98% when its AI capital spending plans revived concerns about an AI bubble. Pintu argues that the pressure on Bitcoin came from declining risk appetite rather than from rising Treasury yields, noting that the 10-year yield closed near 4.95% to 4.96% on October 22, below the 5.06% level noted in its October 19 edition.
Flows and derivatives data point to weakening demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $1.07 billion from October 19 to 21 before posting $773.5 million in outflows on October 22 and 23. CryptoQuant data show BTC exchange netflow of +7,997 BTC for October 19 to 25, up from +1,185 BTC the prior week, which Pintu notes is often read as preparation to sell. CoinGlass data show BTC futures liquidations of $624.3 million for the week, with 69.5% from long positions, while futures open interest stood at $53.20 billion, still 1.8% above the start of the week even as price fell 2.4%. Pintu warns that this leverage could amplify moves when the Fed decision and PCE data are released.
Energy prices added to inflation concerns. Brent closed at $116.72 a barrel on October 23, up 3.1% on the day, and was trading near $114 on the morning of October 26, after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US was evacuating personnel from several Middle East posts because US intelligence assessed Iran was preparing attacks on Americans. CME FedWatch data show 90.6% odds that the Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 28 (US time) meeting, and a 69.4% probability of a hike in December.
On the technical side, Pintu flags $81,800 to $82,000 as resistance, where the 20-day and 50-day SMAs converge, and $75,600 (100-day SMA) as near-term support, followed by $73,000 (200-day SMA). The RSI of 40 leans toward sellers without being oversold. For Ethereum, the Ethereum Foundation called off the Glamsterdam upgrade activation on the Hoodi testnet, scheduled for October 26, and no new date has been set. ETH trades slightly below its 100-day SMA ($2,321) with the 200-day SMA at $2,158 as key support, and an RSI of 32.1.
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