Key Takeaways
- • Speculators added 246,314 contracts to their net short in CBOT 5-year Treasury futures for the week of November 3, 2026, bringing the position to 1,275,370 contracts, the largest net short of any position in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report.
- • Equity fund speculators cut their S&P 500 CME net short by 27,501 contracts to 345,246, while equity fund managers raised their net long by 55 contracts to 917,568.
- • Bond speculators trimmed net shorts in four of five CBOT Treasury contracts, including the 2-year (down 6,932 to 1,002,544) and 10-year (down 19,179 to 962,359), even as the 5-year short surged.
- • Speculators held a net long of 2,230 contracts in CME Bitcoin futures, which the research summary characterizes as a sign of stabilization in digital assets.
Summary
According to the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report, speculators added 246,314 contracts to their net short position in CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures in the week of November 3, 2026. The total net short of 1,275,370 contracts is the largest net short of any position in the latest report. The move stood out against an otherwise mixed picture across the Treasury curve.
In equities, speculators reduced their S&P 500 CME net short by 27,501 contracts to 345,246, while equity fund managers raised their net long by 55 contracts to 917,568. The gap between the two groups is notable: speculators remain short, but managers' net long is far larger than the speculators' net short. The attached research summary reads the reduction in short exposure as a potential shift toward equities, though a reduction in a short does not by itself indicate a bullish stance and may reflect profit-taking or risk reduction.
Across the Treasury curve, speculators trimmed net shorts in the 2-year (down 6,932 contracts to 1,002,544), 10-year (down 19,179 to 962,359), UltraBond (down 21,646 to 361,932) and Treasury bond (down 10,041 to 9,097) contracts. The Treasury bond net short was more than halved in a single week. The 5-year contract was the sole exception, with the increase in shorts dominating the curve-wide picture.
In digital assets, the net long position in CME Bitcoin futures stood at 2,230 contracts. The research summary describes this as a sign of stabilization, though the figure covers only positions reported to a US regulator. The research summary also links the week's positioning shifts to expectations for Federal Reserve policy on interest rates and inflation. The COT report is published weekly and reflects positions as of the report date, so it lags real-time trading.
In equities, speculators reduced their S&P 500 CME net short by 27,501 contracts to 345,246, while equity fund managers raised their net long by 55 contracts to 917,568. The gap between the two groups is notable: speculators remain short, but managers' net long is far larger than the speculators' net short. The attached research summary reads the reduction in short exposure as a potential shift toward equities, though a reduction in a short does not by itself indicate a bullish stance and may reflect profit-taking or risk reduction.
Across the Treasury curve, speculators trimmed net shorts in the 2-year (down 6,932 contracts to 1,002,544), 10-year (down 19,179 to 962,359), UltraBond (down 21,646 to 361,932) and Treasury bond (down 10,041 to 9,097) contracts. The Treasury bond net short was more than halved in a single week. The 5-year contract was the sole exception, with the increase in shorts dominating the curve-wide picture.
In digital assets, the net long position in CME Bitcoin futures stood at 2,230 contracts. The research summary describes this as a sign of stabilization, though the figure covers only positions reported to a US regulator. The research summary also links the week's positioning shifts to expectations for Federal Reserve policy on interest rates and inflation. The COT report is published weekly and reflects positions as of the report date, so it lags real-time trading.
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