Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen says bitcoin "ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000," citing ETF and corporate buying, hard-asset demand and clearer regulation as drivers.
- • LO:TECH's Adam Morgan McCarthy forecasts an $85,000–$95,000 year-end range, citing a Fed rate hike in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%.
- • Inflation data released Oct. 14 showed consumer prices up 0.6% month over month and core prices up 0.3%, with gasoline accounting for more than half of the headline increase.
- • Laser Digital's Luca Invernizzi says leverage has largely been flushed from bitcoin and that a clean break above $90K could trigger a short-covering squeeze.
- • Citi reports total crypto market capitalization rose from roughly $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in Q3, while CoinShares notes investment-product flows have slowed after $11.1 billion of inflows since mid-July.
Summary
Analysts are divided on whether bitcoin can reclaim $100,000 before the end of 2026. According to CoinDesk, bitcoin was trading around $81,500 at publication time on Oct. 18, 2026. Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen expects the asset to finish the year higher, potentially above $100,000, pointing to institutional buying through ETFs and corporate purchases, demand for hard assets amid inflation, rising debt and currency debasement, and clearer regulation. He acknowledged that volatility around a possible late-October Federal Reserve rate increase and November's U.S. midterm elections could make a breakout difficult in the near term.
LO:TECH head of research Adam Morgan McCarthy takes a more cautious view, with a base case of an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end. He said macro conditions have weighed on bitcoin all year, noting the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September. McCarthy said a move above $100,000 would require expectations for a December hike to shift to a pause, supported by easing oil prices and inflation. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill described a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment.
On positioning, Laser Digital's Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Nomura's crypto subsidiary, said bitcoin will remain largely a macro trade, taking direction from longer-dated Treasury yields. He called the rebound from summer lows unconvincing, citing thin volumes, fading ETF inflows and slowing corporate buying. Still, funding rates are at or below zero and leverage has largely been flushed out, reducing the risk of forced selling. Invernizzi said options pricing remains tilted toward downside protection, making upside calls an attractive way to position for a rally.
Citi, in a research note authored by Peter Christiansen, said total crypto market capitalization rose during the third quarter and that institutional ETF flows turned positive. Butterfill cautioned that investment-product flows have since slowed and said sustained gains will require renewed buying, while Rasmussen expects the market to rerate significantly higher once it works through the current period.
LO:TECH head of research Adam Morgan McCarthy takes a more cautious view, with a base case of an $85,000–$95,000 trading range into year-end. He said macro conditions have weighed on bitcoin all year, noting the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September. McCarthy said a move above $100,000 would require expectations for a December hike to shift to a pause, supported by easing oil prices and inflation. CoinShares head of research James Butterfill described a similar tension between persistent inflation and weakening employment.
On positioning, Laser Digital's Luca Invernizzi, senior derivatives trader at Nomura's crypto subsidiary, said bitcoin will remain largely a macro trade, taking direction from longer-dated Treasury yields. He called the rebound from summer lows unconvincing, citing thin volumes, fading ETF inflows and slowing corporate buying. Still, funding rates are at or below zero and leverage has largely been flushed out, reducing the risk of forced selling. Invernizzi said options pricing remains tilted toward downside protection, making upside calls an attractive way to position for a rally.
Citi, in a research note authored by Peter Christiansen, said total crypto market capitalization rose during the third quarter and that institutional ETF flows turned positive. Butterfill cautioned that investment-product flows have since slowed and said sustained gains will require renewed buying, while Rasmussen expects the market to rerate significantly higher once it works through the current period.
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