Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin fell below $80,000 over the weekend of October 25-26, 2026, hitting a low of $79,280 before a small rebound, with roughly $400 million in long positions liquidated in four hours.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $442.6 million in weekly outflows, including $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June; Ethereum funds lost $224.96 million on $14.5 billion in assets.
- • The article argues the decline is a macro-driven move tied to Federal Reserve policy uncertainty under Chair Kevin Warsh and AI-related credit tightening, rather than a crypto-specific event.
- • Technical levels cited include $79,800 as a key threshold, with a break below $79,578 potentially opening a move toward $78,000-$78,600 and then $72,000-$74,500.
- • Central bank decisions from the Fed, ECB and BOJ, plus Warsh, Lagarde and Ueda press conferences, are the near-term catalysts for breaking the $80,000-$86,000 trading range.
Summary
Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 over the weekend, reaching a low of $79,280 before a modest rebound, according to the source article published on blockhead.co. The article reports that nearly $400 million in long positions were liquidated within four hours, with Bitcoin and Ethereum the most affected liquid assets. Leveraged positions that had treated $80,000 as a floor are being unwound, the article argues, and the broader narrative combines technical support breakdowns, fund withdrawals and liquidation cascades.
Flows data reinforced the bearish tone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $442.6 million in net outflows over the week, including $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June. Ethereum ETFs lost $224.96 million against roughly $14.5 billion in assets, a proportionally larger outflow than Bitcoin's. The article notes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $57 billion in net inflows since launch, with total assets of roughly $104-105 billion, and that BlackRock's IBIT drove the largest weekly inflows and outflows.
The article frames the selloff as macro-driven. Warsh declined at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on October 16 to commit to a view ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, which markets read as more accommodative and which reduced the odds of an October hike from above 25% to about 15%. The source states that Coinbase's institutional desk observed Bitcoin's correlation with semiconductor stocks has fallen to less than half its January level, and that the asset is increasingly trading as a liquidity-sensitive instrument. Concerns over AI fundraising and a sharp decline in CoreWeave shares, which fell 15.5% for the week, contributed to broader risk-off flows, according to the article.
Technical readings point to continued pressure. Bitcoin is trading below its 7-day, 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, and the article identifies $79,800 as a threshold. A daily close below $79,578 could target $78,000-$78,600, while the ETF break-even zone near the 200-day moving average at roughly $72,000-$74,500 is cited as a further downside reference. TradingView's overview signaled a buy on long-term moving averages but a neutral short-term reading, while InvestTech's algorithmic analysis returned a negative one- to six-week score. Options data showed implied volatility at record lows even as the DVOL index rose to the 84th percentile of its 90-day range, which the article reads as hedging rather than directional conviction.
On-chain data from KuCoin showed retail net inflows to major exchanges reached a six-month high of $10.75 billion, a figure the article notes could signal either accumulation or pending selling. Bitcoin has also traded at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance for much of the month, a pattern the article links to weaker US demand.
Flows data reinforced the bearish tone. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $442.6 million in net outflows over the week, including $635.5 million on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June. Ethereum ETFs lost $224.96 million against roughly $14.5 billion in assets, a proportionally larger outflow than Bitcoin's. The article notes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated more than $57 billion in net inflows since launch, with total assets of roughly $104-105 billion, and that BlackRock's IBIT drove the largest weekly inflows and outflows.
The article frames the selloff as macro-driven. Warsh declined at the IMF meetings in Bangkok on October 16 to commit to a view ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, which markets read as more accommodative and which reduced the odds of an October hike from above 25% to about 15%. The source states that Coinbase's institutional desk observed Bitcoin's correlation with semiconductor stocks has fallen to less than half its January level, and that the asset is increasingly trading as a liquidity-sensitive instrument. Concerns over AI fundraising and a sharp decline in CoreWeave shares, which fell 15.5% for the week, contributed to broader risk-off flows, according to the article.
Technical readings point to continued pressure. Bitcoin is trading below its 7-day, 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages, and the article identifies $79,800 as a threshold. A daily close below $79,578 could target $78,000-$78,600, while the ETF break-even zone near the 200-day moving average at roughly $72,000-$74,500 is cited as a further downside reference. TradingView's overview signaled a buy on long-term moving averages but a neutral short-term reading, while InvestTech's algorithmic analysis returned a negative one- to six-week score. Options data showed implied volatility at record lows even as the DVOL index rose to the 84th percentile of its 90-day range, which the article reads as hedging rather than directional conviction.
On-chain data from KuCoin showed retail net inflows to major exchanges reached a six-month high of $10.75 billion, a figure the article notes could signal either accumulation or pending selling. Bitcoin has also traded at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance for much of the month, a pattern the article links to weaker US demand.
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