Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise identifies approximately $82,000 as the cost zone associated with Bitcoin ETF investors, a level it flags as resistance to watch for signs of whether this group maintains exposure.
- • Bitwise points to the True Market Mean near $77,600 and a cost level near $74,800 as lower reference points for assessing invested capital in profit or loss.
- • Bitcoin's 30-day trading range narrowed to 1.8% and its 60-day range stood at 3%, with options-implied volatility near the low end of its three-year range.
- • Bitwise reports a negative net position change among long-term Bitcoin holders, which it interprets as diversification, though no sale volume was disclosed.
- • The report characterizes the setup as a range-bound market without a confirmed bullish or bearish outcome and does not forecast a breakout timeline.
Summary
Bitwise has identified approximately $82,000 and $77,600 as key Bitcoin price levels to monitor as the market trades within a narrow range, according to its latest analysis reported by Hokanews on October 24, 2026. The $82,000 level is tied to the approximate cost zone of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors, and the report frames it as a point of resistance. Investor behavior around that price could indicate whether ETF holders are willing to maintain their exposure as the market moves.
Below that level, Bitwise highlights the True Market Mean indicator at around $77,600 and a separate cost level near $74,800. According to the report, these metrics help assess the position of invested capital and whether market participants are holding assets at a profit or loss. Bitwise describes these figures as analytical benchmarks rather than guarantees of future price direction.
The analysis also points to a significant decline in volatility. Bitcoin's 30-day trading range narrowed to 1.8%, while its 60-day range stood at 3%. Options-market indicators showed expected volatility approaching the lower end of its range over the past three years. Bitwise notes that these conditions keep the market within tighter boundaries, making the identified cost basis levels particularly relevant. The report does not establish when a breakout might occur.
Bitwise also flagged a negative net position change among long-term Bitcoin investors, which it interpreted as evidence that some in this group are diversifying holdings. The report did not specify the amount of Bitcoin sold or how long the trend might last. Bitwise suggests these sales could add supply while volatility remains compressed, contributing to range-bound trading. Overall, the firm's analysis emphasizes the combination of compressed volatility, investor cost bases, and long-term holder behavior rather than a confirmed bullish or bearish outcome.
Below that level, Bitwise highlights the True Market Mean indicator at around $77,600 and a separate cost level near $74,800. According to the report, these metrics help assess the position of invested capital and whether market participants are holding assets at a profit or loss. Bitwise describes these figures as analytical benchmarks rather than guarantees of future price direction.
The analysis also points to a significant decline in volatility. Bitcoin's 30-day trading range narrowed to 1.8%, while its 60-day range stood at 3%. Options-market indicators showed expected volatility approaching the lower end of its range over the past three years. Bitwise notes that these conditions keep the market within tighter boundaries, making the identified cost basis levels particularly relevant. The report does not establish when a breakout might occur.
Bitwise also flagged a negative net position change among long-term Bitcoin investors, which it interpreted as evidence that some in this group are diversifying holdings. The report did not specify the amount of Bitcoin sold or how long the trend might last. Bitwise suggests these sales could add supply while volatility remains compressed, contributing to range-bound trading. Overall, the firm's analysis emphasizes the combination of compressed volatility, investor cost bases, and long-term holder behavior rather than a confirmed bullish or bearish outcome.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.