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Bitcoin ETF Inflows Forecast — IBIT ($40) $46 Upside Target on Peaking $1.44B Outflow Streak

Reported by Tradingnews
Nov 13, 2026· 3 min read
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Key Takeaways
  • • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $1,437.9M over five straight sessions from November 5 to November 11, the longest outflow run since summer, according to the primary source.
  • • BlackRock's IBIT supplied $269.7M of the $299.8M outflow on November 11, its ninth consecutive session of redemptions, and accounted for 94% of November's spot Bitcoin ETF outflows to date.
  • • Outflows are concentrated in one product: FBTC, BITB and ARKB posted zero net flows on November 11, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $8.96M.
  • • IBIT closed at $40.45 on November 12, down 4.23% on the day, with Bitcoin trading at $71,393 near a 12-week low.
  • • Year-to-date 2026 net flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs stand near -$1.42B, putting the category on track for its first negative year since launch in January 2024.
Summary
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded five consecutive sessions of net outflows, totaling $1,437.9 million from November 5 through November 11, according to the primary source. The largest single day was November 5, when the funds lost $430.2M, led by Fidelity's FBTC with $199.9M in withdrawals. The most recent complete print, November 11, showed $299.8M leaving the funds, up sharply from $95M on November 10.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounts for the bulk of the selling. IBIT supplied $269.7M of the November 11 outflow, its ninth straight session of redemptions, and has lost more than $2B since October 30. IBIT holds roughly 62% of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets, and the source attributes its outsized role to its deep options market, tight spreads and large institutional holder base, which make it the first vehicle hedge funds, advisors and basis traders use to reduce exposure. IBIT closed at $40.45 on November 12, down 4.23% on the day. The source reports its cumulative net inflow since launch at $64.54B.

Outside IBIT, flows have been much smaller. On November 11, Grayscale's GBTC lost $39.1M, while Morgan Stanley's MSBT added $8.96M, bringing its cumulative net inflow to $834M. The source characterizes GBTC's outflows as structural, tied to its 1.5% fee and conversion from a trust in January 2024, rather than a signal about Bitcoin demand.

Market conditions compounded the redemption pressure. Bitcoin fell below $72,000 to a 12-week low, with total crypto market value down 2.72% to $1.43 trillion. The source cites Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation, MSCI's decision to remove Strategy (MSTR) from its indexes, a hot October CPI print of +0.4% headline and +0.3% core, a 10-year Treasury yield of 5.07%, and a dollar index at a 19-month high of 103.08 as headwinds.

On a year-to-date basis, spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $25.6B and paid out $26.1B through November 5, leaving net flows near -$1.42B after the November 9 to 11 sessions. Cumulative net inflows since launch remain positive at $55.17B through November 11. The source's view is that the outflow streak is concentrated and slowing in breadth, and that a figure below $100M on the next print would extend that trend, while outflows above $400M would reset the streak to its November 5 intensity.

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Sources

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AlphaMaven summarised this story from the reporting below. Each link opens the original article.

Tradingnews Bitcoin ETF Inflows Forecast — IBIT ($40) $46 Upside Target on Peaking $1.44B Outflow Streak