Key Takeaways
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $635.49 million in net outflows on October 22, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 25, according to SoSoValue, reversing a day earlier inflows of $528.40 million.
- • DWF Labs research found ETF selling tends to pick up once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high; based on Binance closes, that threshold sits near $80,470 as of October 22.
- • BTC closed October 22 at $81,416.09, down 3.18% on the day and about 5.9% below its October 4 high of $86,530, leaving it close to the trigger level.
- • The three-day inflow run before October 22 totaled roughly $1.08 billion, and October net flows now stand at about $174.5 million in outflows.
- • DWF's sample of 24 cases shows a clear pattern but, as the firm notes, not statistical proof; past 7% breaks saw flows near zero the following week and positive the week after.
Summary
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $635.49 million in net outflows on October 22, according to SoSoValue, the largest single-day withdrawal since June 25. The outflow followed a $528.40 million inflow on October 21 and ended a three-day run of inflows worth about $1.08 billion that began with $526.6 million on October 19, the funds' biggest day since September 22. Net flows for October now stand at roughly $174.5 million in withdrawals.
The timing reflects a threshold identified by DWF Labs, a crypto market maker that studied spot Bitcoin ETF flows since January 2024. The firm found that selling picks up once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high. In DWF's words, "ETF investors aren't shaken by small dips, but once a fall reaches about 7%, they start selling." Average daily flows swing from about $74 million in inflows to $72 million in outflows at that point, and flows worsened in 19 of the 24 cases the firm examined. DWF also found that flows tend to follow price moves, with flows still positive on the peak day at 7 of 8 market tops.
Based on Binance daily closes, BTC ended October 22 about 5.9% below its October 4 high of $86,530, placing the 7% trigger near $80,470. BeInCrypto Markets reported BTC down 3.41% over 24 hours to $81,297 at one point, and Binance data shows BTC closing October 22 at $81,416.09, down 3.18% from the prior close. BTC had climbed from $82,245.93 on October 15 to $84,093.42 on October 21, with the advance stalling near $85,000.
The threshold itself is set to move. Once the October 4 high leaves the 20-day window, the next reference point is October 5's close of $85,766.87, which would lower the trigger to roughly $79,760 unless BTC first closes above $85,766.87. DWF's data also suggests such selling tends to fade: after past 7% breaks, flows hovered near zero the following week and turned positive the week after. DWF noted its sample shows a clear pattern but not statistical proof, and the next few daily closes will indicate whether outflows deepen if BTC closes below the line.
The timing reflects a threshold identified by DWF Labs, a crypto market maker that studied spot Bitcoin ETF flows since January 2024. The firm found that selling picks up once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high. In DWF's words, "ETF investors aren't shaken by small dips, but once a fall reaches about 7%, they start selling." Average daily flows swing from about $74 million in inflows to $72 million in outflows at that point, and flows worsened in 19 of the 24 cases the firm examined. DWF also found that flows tend to follow price moves, with flows still positive on the peak day at 7 of 8 market tops.
Based on Binance daily closes, BTC ended October 22 about 5.9% below its October 4 high of $86,530, placing the 7% trigger near $80,470. BeInCrypto Markets reported BTC down 3.41% over 24 hours to $81,297 at one point, and Binance data shows BTC closing October 22 at $81,416.09, down 3.18% from the prior close. BTC had climbed from $82,245.93 on October 15 to $84,093.42 on October 21, with the advance stalling near $85,000.
The threshold itself is set to move. Once the October 4 high leaves the 20-day window, the next reference point is October 5's close of $85,766.87, which would lower the trigger to roughly $79,760 unless BTC first closes above $85,766.87. DWF's data also suggests such selling tends to fade: after past 7% breaks, flows hovered near zero the following week and turned positive the week after. DWF noted its sample shows a clear pattern but not statistical proof, and the next few daily closes will indicate whether outflows deepen if BTC closes below the line.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.