Key Takeaways
- • Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn argues the Bitcoin bear market ended in June, placing BTC in an "accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance," according to a new Galaxy analysis reported by The Daily Hodl.
- • Thorn cites technical strength: the 200-week moving average held, and the 50-week moving average has been regained for five straight weeks.
- • Positioning data shows basis traders and macro participants who were long into October 2025 have cut ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while other holders have mostly stayed put.
- • BTC needs a 53% rise to retake its all-time high, while equities sit near record levels.
- • Thorn says the sentiment shift toward "blockchain, not Bitcoin" has appeared three times and preceded large BTC gains in prior cycles, with the next cycle highs 83x higher in 2015-16 and 20x higher in 2018-19.
Summary
Researchers at Galaxy Digital believe the Bitcoin bear market ended four months ago, according to a new analysis by Alex Thorn, the firm's head of firmwide research, as reported by The Daily Hodl. Thorn characterizes the current phase as "the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance."
On technical measures, Thorn writes that the 200-week moving average held and the 50-week moving average has been regained for five consecutive weeks. He also notes that, at day 916 of the halving cycle, Bitcoin has moved past the window in which every prior cycle bottomed.
Thorn argues that selling pressure has largely run its course. Basis traders and macro participants who were long into October 2025 have reduced their ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while other holders have mostly kept their positions. Equities are near record highs, whereas BTC needs a 53% gain to regain its own all-time high. Thorn also cites the fundamental backdrop, pointing to the likelihood of medium-term debasement by a sovereign running $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields.
Thorn further observes that sentiment has shifted toward "blockchain, not Bitcoin" for the third time during his coverage of the market. He points to the 2015-16 episode, when the R3 consortium and The Economist's "Trust Machine" coverage made that position mainstream; the lowest weekly BTC close in that period was $231, and the next cycle high was 83 times higher. In 2018-19, when JPM Coin and Libra were unveiled and Bitcoin traded at $3,195, the next cycle high was 20 times higher. The analysis presents these episodes as precedent for the current setup.
On technical measures, Thorn writes that the 200-week moving average held and the 50-week moving average has been regained for five consecutive weeks. He also notes that, at day 916 of the halving cycle, Bitcoin has moved past the window in which every prior cycle bottomed.
Thorn argues that selling pressure has largely run its course. Basis traders and macro participants who were long into October 2025 have reduced their ETF and futures exposure by more than half, while other holders have mostly kept their positions. Equities are near record highs, whereas BTC needs a 53% gain to regain its own all-time high. Thorn also cites the fundamental backdrop, pointing to the likelihood of medium-term debasement by a sovereign running $2 trillion deficits at 5% yields.
Thorn further observes that sentiment has shifted toward "blockchain, not Bitcoin" for the third time during his coverage of the market. He points to the 2015-16 episode, when the R3 consortium and The Economist's "Trust Machine" coverage made that position mainstream; the lowest weekly BTC close in that period was $231, and the next cycle high was 83 times higher. In 2018-19, when JPM Coin and Libra were unveiled and Bitcoin traded at $3,195, the next cycle high was 20 times higher. The analysis presents these episodes as precedent for the current setup.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.