Key Takeaways
- • Bitfinex sees $81,300 as resistance for Bitcoin, with passive buying in the $77,000-$80,000 support zone leaving any recovery exposed to fresh selling.
- • Bitcoin futures open interest rose 12.1% to 694,728 BTC by October 31 even as the price fell 5.3%, with annualised funding rates reaching 17% on some perpetual exchanges during the October 30 sell-off.
- • US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, their biggest daily outflow since June 25, and October became the first month of net ETF outflows since June after $6.36 billion of inflows over July to September.
- • Wintermute says Bitcoin must reclaim and hold $80,000, with bids coming from spot and ETF flows, before it would drop its short-term caution; the 50-week moving average near $76,800 is the next key support.
- • Bitcoin traded at $77,660 at the time of writing, up 0.2% over 24 hours.
Summary
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $77,000 and $80,000 as spot demand stays subdued, according to analysis from crypto exchange Bitfinex and trading firm Wintermute. Bitfinex, in its Tuesday Bitfinex Alpha report, said the support zone continues to constrain the near-term outlook and identified $81,300 as the next major resistance level, where investors seeking to close positions could cap further upside. Around 1.05 million BTC has been acquired inside the $77,000-$80,000 band, up from 738,000 BTC on October 28, but Bitfinex characterised this buying as predominantly passive, with resting bids absorbing sales rather than buyers actively pursuing the market. Bitfinex quoted the exchange as saying: "The current buying we are seeing inside the $77-80,000 band is passive, not aggressive."
Derivatives activity has diverged from spot. Total futures open interest reached 694,728 BTC by October 31, a 12.1% increase from the October 12 low, even as Bitcoin's price declined 5.3%. Funding rates remained positive, and during the October 30 sell-off annualised rates reached 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges, which Bitfinex interpreted as leveraged traders positioning for a rebound. Options markets signalled continued volatility, with implied price moves pointing to a possible $74,400 to $81,750 trading range through the November 6 expiry.
Spot demand has lagged. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, their largest daily outflow since June 25. Following combined inflows of $6.36 billion over July, August and September, October marked the first month of net ETF outflows since June. Bitfinex cautioned that without sustained, aggressive spot buying, Bitcoin's recovery risks stalling.
Wintermute said in its Tuesday report that $80,000 remains a critical threshold and that reclaiming and holding it is required for a better near-term outlook. The firm stated: "We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow." It identified the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next significant support, and warned that a lasting break below would heighten downside risks. Wintermute attributed continued market pressure to the $6.3 billion Binance hack late the prior Thursday, which triggered roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations, about 85% of them leveraged longs. The initial dip-buying came largely through perpetual futures rather than spot markets, leaving the rebound without sufficient new spot demand. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $77,660, a 0.2% gain over 24 hours.
Derivatives activity has diverged from spot. Total futures open interest reached 694,728 BTC by October 31, a 12.1% increase from the October 12 low, even as Bitcoin's price declined 5.3%. Funding rates remained positive, and during the October 30 sell-off annualised rates reached 17% on some major perpetual futures exchanges, which Bitfinex interpreted as leveraged traders positioning for a rebound. Options markets signalled continued volatility, with implied price moves pointing to a possible $74,400 to $81,750 trading range through the November 6 expiry.
Spot demand has lagged. US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, their largest daily outflow since June 25. Following combined inflows of $6.36 billion over July, August and September, October marked the first month of net ETF outflows since June. Bitfinex cautioned that without sustained, aggressive spot buying, Bitcoin's recovery risks stalling.
Wintermute said in its Tuesday report that $80,000 remains a critical threshold and that reclaiming and holding it is required for a better near-term outlook. The firm stated: "We would stop being short-term cautious if Bitcoin reclaims $80K and holds it with the bid coming from spot and ETF flow." It identified the 50-week moving average near $76,800 as the next significant support, and warned that a lasting break below would heighten downside risks. Wintermute attributed continued market pressure to the $6.3 billion Binance hack late the prior Thursday, which triggered roughly $1.5 billion in liquidations, about 85% of them leveraged longs. The initial dip-buying came largely through perpetual futures rather than spot markets, leaving the rebound without sufficient new spot demand. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $77,660, a 0.2% gain over 24 hours.
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