Key Takeaways
- • Johnson Associates projects private credit bonuses for 2026 at flat to down 7.5%, the weakest outlook among Wall Street categories, according to its report released November 10, 2026.
- • Wall Street bonuses are on track for a third straight year of increases, led by equity investment bankers projected to rise 20% to 30% or more.
- • Equities asset management bonuses are projected to rise 10% to 15%, wealth management 7.5% to 12.5%, hedge funds 5% to 15% or more, private equity flat to up 7.5%, and real estate up 5%.
- • Alan Johnson warns that 2026 may be a peak year for Wall Street pay, with 2027 outcomes uncertain and AI expected to affect headcount from 2027 onward.
Summary
Private credit professionals could see bonuses decline for 2026, a development that Johnson Associates says could presage a broader Wall Street pay decline in 2027, according to a new report from the compensation consulting firm released November 10, 2026. The firm's projections, based on proprietary compensation data and public information from 20 of the largest money managers, show Wall Street professionals on the whole tracking for a third consecutive year of higher bonuses, with equity investment bankers leading at projected increases of 20% to 30% or higher.
Private credit is the weakest category in the analysis, with projected bonuses of flat to down 7.5%. Pensions & Investments reported that the sector's struggles, including heavy withdrawal requests from wealth investors, may reduce compensation. Other asset management categories are projected to fare better: equities asset management bonuses are expected to rise 10% to 15%, wealth management 7.5% to 12.5%, and hedge funds 5% to 15% or more. Private equity is pegged at flat to up 7.5% and real estate at up 5%. Johnson Associates noted these smaller private markets figures are consistent with its August report.
Alan Johnson, managing director at Johnson Associates, told Pensions & Investments that private markets have broadly underperformed, with credit facing 'its own really obvious set of problems.' He asked whether those problems are fully understood or represent a slow realization over time. Traditional asset managers have benefited from a generally positive market backdrop, with U.S. stocks solidly up for the year despite concerns about AI-related investment. Johnson said product expansion, including separately managed accounts and active ETFs and a push into wealth and retail channels, has also supported results.
Johnson described 2026 as an 'unusual year' in which markets performed well despite geopolitical concerns and persistent inflation, possibly making it a peak for Wall Street bonuses. Asset manager revenues for 2026 are largely booked, but a public market downturn could affect future bonuses. He added that artificial intelligence is advancing faster than the firm expected and will have a profound effect on headcount and firm organization in 2027, 2028 and beyond, though it is not expected to be a major factor in 2026.
Private credit is the weakest category in the analysis, with projected bonuses of flat to down 7.5%. Pensions & Investments reported that the sector's struggles, including heavy withdrawal requests from wealth investors, may reduce compensation. Other asset management categories are projected to fare better: equities asset management bonuses are expected to rise 10% to 15%, wealth management 7.5% to 12.5%, and hedge funds 5% to 15% or more. Private equity is pegged at flat to up 7.5% and real estate at up 5%. Johnson Associates noted these smaller private markets figures are consistent with its August report.
Alan Johnson, managing director at Johnson Associates, told Pensions & Investments that private markets have broadly underperformed, with credit facing 'its own really obvious set of problems.' He asked whether those problems are fully understood or represent a slow realization over time. Traditional asset managers have benefited from a generally positive market backdrop, with U.S. stocks solidly up for the year despite concerns about AI-related investment. Johnson said product expansion, including separately managed accounts and active ETFs and a push into wealth and retail channels, has also supported results.
Johnson described 2026 as an 'unusual year' in which markets performed well despite geopolitical concerns and persistent inflation, possibly making it a peak for Wall Street bonuses. Asset manager revenues for 2026 are largely booked, but a public market downturn could affect future bonuses. He added that artificial intelligence is advancing faster than the firm expected and will have a profound effect on headcount and firm organization in 2027, 2028 and beyond, though it is not expected to be a major factor in 2026.
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