Key Takeaways
- • Goldman Sachs raised 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates for European integrated oil companies and exploration-and-production firms by 17% and 11% on average, respectively, now positioning estimates 54% and 24% above LSEG consensus for those years.
- • The bank revised upward its Brent crude oil price assumptions to $85/barrel for 2026 and $74/barrel for 2027 (from $76 and $69), while lifting European TTF gas benchmarks to €15.6/mcf in 2026 and €12.4/mcf in 2027, reflecting geopolitical risk premiums and current market conditions near $100/barrel.
- • Goldman identified 10 energy stocks with buy ratings positioned for further upside, including ConocoPhillips, HF Sinclair, Kinder Morgan, and Vistra Energy, as the energy sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 20% year-to-date in 2026.
- • The bank highlighted BP as a major beneficiary of elevated energy prices, citing its strong LNG trading operations and higher exposure to gas markets, alongside other dividend-paying exploration-and-production companies offering both yield and capital appreciation potential.
- • Goldman expects 2026 profit margins in the energy sector to resemble conditions observed during the 2022 energy crisis if current commodity price levels persist, supporting strong sector profitability through the forecast period.
Summary
Goldman Sachs has significantly elevated its outlook for European and U.S. energy equities following a surge in oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. The investment bank updated its commodity price assumptions and earnings models across the sector, reflecting current market dynamics where Brent crude is trading near $100 per barrel and European gas benchmarks (TTF) hover around €50 per megawatt-hour.
The bank's revised price forecasts model Brent at $85 per barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, compared with previous estimates of $76 and $69 respectively. Concurrently, Goldman lifted TTF gas price assumptions to €15.6 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) for 2026 and €12.4 per mcf for 2027. These upward revisions in commodity assumptions directly flow through to improved profitability expectations. Goldman's 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates for European integrated oil companies and exploration-and-production firms increased by 17% and 11% on average, placing the bank's forecasts 54% and 24% above LSEG consensus for the respective years. According to Michele Della Vigna's research team, analysts identified particularly strong upside for certain names, with one company's 2026 earnings forecast sitting approximately 82% above consensus despite modest near-term stock appreciation.
Across its coverage universe, Goldman raised 12-month price targets on multiple stocks, including increases from €45 to €48, from €68 to €75, and from €22 to €24 for selected European operators, alongside targets for Nordic peers elevated to NKr 260. BP emerged as a highlighted beneficiary, with Goldman citing the company's strong liquefied natural gas trading operations and elevated exposure to gas markets as key drivers of outperformance.
On the U.S. side, Goldman identified 10 energy equities with buy ratings positioned for additional upside. ConocoPhillips, HF Sinclair, Kinder Morgan, and Vistra Energy rank among the bank's top selections. The energy sector has delivered 20% returns year-to-date in 2026 compared to the S&P 500's roughly flat performance, driven by positive GDP revisions, sector rotation away from technology equities, and positive oil momentum amid smaller-than-expected supply surpluses and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Goldman noted that all four of its primary exploration-and-production picks pay dependable dividends, with some distributions rising, offering institutional and high-net-worth investors both current yield and capital appreciation. Should commodity prices remain at elevated levels, the bank's analysts expect 2026 sector profitability to resemble conditions observed during the 2022 energy crisis.
The bank's revised price forecasts model Brent at $85 per barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, compared with previous estimates of $76 and $69 respectively. Concurrently, Goldman lifted TTF gas price assumptions to €15.6 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) for 2026 and €12.4 per mcf for 2027. These upward revisions in commodity assumptions directly flow through to improved profitability expectations. Goldman's 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates for European integrated oil companies and exploration-and-production firms increased by 17% and 11% on average, placing the bank's forecasts 54% and 24% above LSEG consensus for the respective years. According to Michele Della Vigna's research team, analysts identified particularly strong upside for certain names, with one company's 2026 earnings forecast sitting approximately 82% above consensus despite modest near-term stock appreciation.
Across its coverage universe, Goldman raised 12-month price targets on multiple stocks, including increases from €45 to €48, from €68 to €75, and from €22 to €24 for selected European operators, alongside targets for Nordic peers elevated to NKr 260. BP emerged as a highlighted beneficiary, with Goldman citing the company's strong liquefied natural gas trading operations and elevated exposure to gas markets as key drivers of outperformance.
On the U.S. side, Goldman identified 10 energy equities with buy ratings positioned for additional upside. ConocoPhillips, HF Sinclair, Kinder Morgan, and Vistra Energy rank among the bank's top selections. The energy sector has delivered 20% returns year-to-date in 2026 compared to the S&P 500's roughly flat performance, driven by positive GDP revisions, sector rotation away from technology equities, and positive oil momentum amid smaller-than-expected supply surpluses and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Goldman noted that all four of its primary exploration-and-production picks pay dependable dividends, with some distributions rising, offering institutional and high-net-worth investors both current yield and capital appreciation. Should commodity prices remain at elevated levels, the bank's analysts expect 2026 sector profitability to resemble conditions observed during the 2022 energy crisis.
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