Key Takeaways
- • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects lithium demand will reach about 7 million metric tons LCE in 2050, up from 2.11 million metric tons in 2026, requiring the equivalent of 134 new mines at an average size of 36,000 metric tons LCE.
- • Benchmark estimates more than US$100 billion of investment is needed in its base case, rising to more than 180 mines and over US$150 billion in its upside scenario, before any contribution from recycling.
- • Benchmark's Cameron Perks identifies sustaining investment through price cycles as the biggest challenge, as capital competes with AI, defence and the broader energy transition.
- • Australia's share of mined supply is forecast to fall from 29 percent in 2026 to 20 percent by 2050, while North America's share rises from 1.7 percent to 13 percent.
- • Recycling is expected to supply almost half of lithium by 2050 in Benchmark's base case, a assumption Perks says "asks a lot" of the sector.
Summary
The lithium industry will need to bring the equivalent of a new mine into production roughly every two months over the next 24 years to meet demand, according to new data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Benchmark forecasts global lithium demand will reach about 7 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, up from 2.11 million metric tons in 2026. At an average mine size of 36,000 metric tons LCE, the 4.8 million metric ton increase equates to 134 new mines, with demand growth between 2040 and 2050 alone accounting for 44 of them.
Cameron Perks, product director for lithium at Benchmark, said meeting 2050 demand requires more than US$100 billion of investment before any contribution from recycling. He said the biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition. Prices have already been volatile in 2026: after a strong first-half rally, battery-grade lithium carbonate ended the third quarter at US$19,025 per metric ton, down 20.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, and spodumene concentrate fell 23.5 percent to US$1,780 per metric ton, according to Benchmark data.
Benchmark expects lithium demand to more than triple between 2026 and 2050, with batteries accounting for 92 percent of demand in 2026, up from around 70 percent in 2020. EVs make up 55 percent of demand today and are projected to reach 76 percent by 2050 as stationary storage growth cools. Storage-related demand grew more than 60 percent a year over the past two years, but Perks expects that rate to slow to around 5 percent annually through the end of the decade. Benchmark also forecasts lithium demand tied to AI data center storage will rise from roughly 15,000 metric tons in 2025 to nearly 70,000 metric tons by 2035, though data centers will remain a small share relative to EVs.
Supply geography is also set to shift. Australia was the largest source of mined lithium in 2026 at 29 percent, a share Benchmark expects to fall to 20 percent by 2050 even with brownfield expansions such as PLS's P2000, which it assumes will start around 2030. Perks said price volatility has made financiers hesitant and the regulatory burden is growing. China's share of mined supply holds near 25 percent, and Benchmark estimates China controls roughly 70 percent of refined lithium production. North America's share of mined supply is projected to rise from 1.7 percent in 2026 to 13 percent by 2050, while Europe supplies less than 1 percent of mined lithium today and is projected to produce 5.5 percent by 2050 against 8 percent of demand. Perks noted that large projects in these regions face novel technology requirements and environmental and community concerns, making mines more costly.
In Benchmark's upside scenario, demand reaches almost 9 million metric tons LCE by 2050, requiring around 180 mines and well over US$150 billion, according to Perks. Recycling is the largest variable: Benchmark forecasts recycled material will make up almost half of lithium supply by 2050, and its capex analysis puts investment needed for 2040 demand at around US$64 billion. Perks cautioned that the recycling assumption has limits, as it is constrained by battery end-of-life timing and must compete with mines on cost.
Cameron Perks, product director for lithium at Benchmark, said meeting 2050 demand requires more than US$100 billion of investment before any contribution from recycling. He said the biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition. Prices have already been volatile in 2026: after a strong first-half rally, battery-grade lithium carbonate ended the third quarter at US$19,025 per metric ton, down 20.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, and spodumene concentrate fell 23.5 percent to US$1,780 per metric ton, according to Benchmark data.
Benchmark expects lithium demand to more than triple between 2026 and 2050, with batteries accounting for 92 percent of demand in 2026, up from around 70 percent in 2020. EVs make up 55 percent of demand today and are projected to reach 76 percent by 2050 as stationary storage growth cools. Storage-related demand grew more than 60 percent a year over the past two years, but Perks expects that rate to slow to around 5 percent annually through the end of the decade. Benchmark also forecasts lithium demand tied to AI data center storage will rise from roughly 15,000 metric tons in 2025 to nearly 70,000 metric tons by 2035, though data centers will remain a small share relative to EVs.
Supply geography is also set to shift. Australia was the largest source of mined lithium in 2026 at 29 percent, a share Benchmark expects to fall to 20 percent by 2050 even with brownfield expansions such as PLS's P2000, which it assumes will start around 2030. Perks said price volatility has made financiers hesitant and the regulatory burden is growing. China's share of mined supply holds near 25 percent, and Benchmark estimates China controls roughly 70 percent of refined lithium production. North America's share of mined supply is projected to rise from 1.7 percent in 2026 to 13 percent by 2050, while Europe supplies less than 1 percent of mined lithium today and is projected to produce 5.5 percent by 2050 against 8 percent of demand. Perks noted that large projects in these regions face novel technology requirements and environmental and community concerns, making mines more costly.
In Benchmark's upside scenario, demand reaches almost 9 million metric tons LCE by 2050, requiring around 180 mines and well over US$150 billion, according to Perks. Recycling is the largest variable: Benchmark forecasts recycled material will make up almost half of lithium supply by 2050, and its capex analysis puts investment needed for 2040 demand at around US$64 billion. Perks cautioned that the recycling assumption has limits, as it is constrained by battery end-of-life timing and must compete with mines on cost.
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