Key Takeaways
- • US startups raised $413 billion in the first half of 2026, more than any full year on record, according to the Alumni Ventures-sponsored Substack analysis by Brian Flaherty.
- • Deals over $1 billion accounted for 73% of all venture dollars invested in the first half of 2026, up from 10% in 2021, while AI startups absorbed 86% of venture deal value.
- • The share of Series A-bound seed startups has fallen to fewer than 20%, versus roughly half historically, and 2,345 VC-backed startups have failed so far in 2026.
- • Just three firms are responsible for raising nearly half of all VC capital this year, and about 20 VC firms manage over $15 billion each.
- • The author expects divergence to deepen: mega VC will reward access to known winners, while classic VC will reward discovering new ones.
Summary
US venture capital raised $413 billion in the first half of 2026, a record pace according to the article, yet startup CEOs face falling deal counts, fewer Series A financings and sharply rising shutdowns. The author argues the "venture" label now covers two distinct markets: a concentrated mega VC segment dominated by AI companies, and a classic early-stage market that is more dispersed, with a widening gap between winners and losers.
At the top, deals over $1 billion made up 73% of venture dollars in the first half of 2026, up from 10% in 2021. In the twelve months to July, the ten largest deals represented 65% of total deal value, compared with 17% a decade earlier. AI drew 86% of venture deal value in the first half, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have raised over $200 billion this year. The article cites OpenAI plans to spend $750 billion on compute through 2030. Median age at IPO has risen from about 8 years before 2000 to 12 years in 2025, which the author links to VC pressure to return liquidity to LPs. Megafunds compound the trend: about 20 firms exceed $15 billion in AUM, for whom a typical $10 million deal equals 0.07% of capital.
Below this tier, the path to exit has lengthened. Time from a $1 million seed round to a Series A rose from 21 months in 2016 to 30 months in 2025. Failures are also climbing, with 2,345 VC-backed startups failing so far in 2026, versus typically fewer than 1,000 per year before 2024. The author notes that for successful startups, valuations are accelerating: top-decile Series A companies were valued at nearly 5x the median in Q1 2026, and Lovable, Mercor and Cursor set records for fastest time to $100 million ARR.
The article cites Wellington Management's view that mega VC may increasingly deliver beta-like returns, and notes small funds have posted the strongest median IRRs since 2010, albeit with the highest variance. The piece is sponsored content from Alumni Ventures, which describes itself as a co-investor ranked #3 by PitchBook for 2025 deal volume, and it highlights deals including RegCell's $44 million Series A, PicoGrid's $45 million Series A and Thea Energy's $100 million Series B.
At the top, deals over $1 billion made up 73% of venture dollars in the first half of 2026, up from 10% in 2021. In the twelve months to July, the ten largest deals represented 65% of total deal value, compared with 17% a decade earlier. AI drew 86% of venture deal value in the first half, and OpenAI and Anthropic alone have raised over $200 billion this year. The article cites OpenAI plans to spend $750 billion on compute through 2030. Median age at IPO has risen from about 8 years before 2000 to 12 years in 2025, which the author links to VC pressure to return liquidity to LPs. Megafunds compound the trend: about 20 firms exceed $15 billion in AUM, for whom a typical $10 million deal equals 0.07% of capital.
Below this tier, the path to exit has lengthened. Time from a $1 million seed round to a Series A rose from 21 months in 2016 to 30 months in 2025. Failures are also climbing, with 2,345 VC-backed startups failing so far in 2026, versus typically fewer than 1,000 per year before 2024. The author notes that for successful startups, valuations are accelerating: top-decile Series A companies were valued at nearly 5x the median in Q1 2026, and Lovable, Mercor and Cursor set records for fastest time to $100 million ARR.
The article cites Wellington Management's view that mega VC may increasingly deliver beta-like returns, and notes small funds have posted the strongest median IRRs since 2010, albeit with the highest variance. The piece is sponsored content from Alumni Ventures, which describes itself as a co-investor ranked #3 by PitchBook for 2025 deal volume, and it highlights deals including RegCell's $44 million Series A, PicoGrid's $45 million Series A and Thea Energy's $100 million Series B.
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