Key Takeaways
- • The author outlines a three-step "Act, Adjust, Absorb" framework for making consequential business decisions, drawn from his experience launching Desert Forge Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on the Las Vegas ecosystem.
- • Decision-makers should act once they have a sufficient signal rather than waiting for certainty, while keeping early moves small and reversible.
- • The author's first two fund investments wanted lead checks larger than the fund had raised, forcing an accelerated fundraise and clearer timeline communication with investors and founders.
- • A weekly review of expectations versus outcomes, plus the question of whether affected parties are ready, is presented as the mechanism for turning experience into better judgment.
Summary
In a first-person essay published by Entrepreneur, the author describes a personal framework for decision-making that he developed as he moved from academia into entrepreneurship and venture investing. He says he has shifted from avoiding decisions until he was certain to acting on sufficient evidence, arguing that "move before you're ready" is poor advice if it means ignoring evidence.
The framework begins with "Act." The author describes launching Desert Forge Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on the Las Vegas ecosystem, before every detail was settled. He says he consulted a nephew active in Silicon Valley, who helped him frame the fund around the anticipated wave of AI startups, and a Tucson-based friend who had founded venture funds tied to the University of Arizona, who helped refine the Las Vegas positioning and shared legal documents from his first fund. He advises asking questions designed to prove oneself wrong, such as what is being missed and where the plan could fail.
The "Adjust" stage draws on the fund's first two investments, which fit its deep-tech university-lab thesis but whose companies wanted substantial lead investments beyond what the fund had raised. The author says he agreed to proceed anyway, which created a difficult position. He responded by accelerating fundraising, recalibrating investor conversations and communicating timelines more deliberately. He draws the rule that reversible decisions should be made early, while decisions that create obligations for others call for more care. He lists five questions he now uses to pressure-test commitments, including the smallest credible move, who becomes dependent on the firm, and what evidence would cause acceleration, a change of course or a stop.
The final stage, "Absorb," calls for leaders to review each week one avoided conversation or decision and reflect on what they expected, what happened and what they learned. The author says he now asks whether the people and resources affected by a decision are ready, distinguishes among what he knows, believes and still needs to test, and seeks out critics. He describes this as building better judgment filters rather than confidence alone. The essay closes by framing uncertainty as a zone for calibrated decisions, citing Goethe's line that "Doubt can only be removed by action."
The framework begins with "Act." The author describes launching Desert Forge Ventures, an early-stage venture capital fund focused on the Las Vegas ecosystem, before every detail was settled. He says he consulted a nephew active in Silicon Valley, who helped him frame the fund around the anticipated wave of AI startups, and a Tucson-based friend who had founded venture funds tied to the University of Arizona, who helped refine the Las Vegas positioning and shared legal documents from his first fund. He advises asking questions designed to prove oneself wrong, such as what is being missed and where the plan could fail.
The "Adjust" stage draws on the fund's first two investments, which fit its deep-tech university-lab thesis but whose companies wanted substantial lead investments beyond what the fund had raised. The author says he agreed to proceed anyway, which created a difficult position. He responded by accelerating fundraising, recalibrating investor conversations and communicating timelines more deliberately. He draws the rule that reversible decisions should be made early, while decisions that create obligations for others call for more care. He lists five questions he now uses to pressure-test commitments, including the smallest credible move, who becomes dependent on the firm, and what evidence would cause acceleration, a change of course or a stop.
The final stage, "Absorb," calls for leaders to review each week one avoided conversation or decision and reflect on what they expected, what happened and what they learned. The author says he now asks whether the people and resources affected by a decision are ready, distinguishes among what he knows, believes and still needs to test, and seeks out critics. He describes this as building better judgment filters rather than confidence alone. The essay closes by framing uncertainty as a zone for calibrated decisions, citing Goethe's line that "Doubt can only be removed by action."
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