Key Takeaways
- • Panelists at the RIA Edge Private Markets conference in Austin, Texas said the wealth industry's focus has shifted from the "democratization" of private markets to operational, educational and liquidity challenges.
- • Companies staying private longer have pushed investors toward pre-IPO access, with VanEck's Christian Munafo saying tech IPO investors "did not do well" in recent years.
- • Panelists estimated current private allocations in defined contribution plans at about $100 billion of roughly $15 trillion in assets, projecting a 5% to 10% shift toward privates that could reach $600 billion by 2030.
- • Private credit's share of CAIS platform volume fell from 40% in 2024 to 33% in 2025 and 15% so far this year, though 77% of 102 RIA custom model portfolios on CAIS still include private credit.
- • ARENA Private Wealth, a $1 billion RIA, deployed $300 million directly into private company capital tables over the past year, leading two Series B rounds and taking board seats.
Summary
On the equity side, companies staying private longer have changed the IPO math. Panelists cited the mega-IPO of SpaceX earlier this year and Anthropic's pending listing as evidence of the shift. Advisors are increasingly seeking pre-IPO access, though there is trepidation about serving as exit liquidity for growth investors. VanEck's Christian Munafo said IPO investors in recent tech listings "did not do well," adding that value has been harvested outside listed markets. Panelists noted that 80% of private firms never go public and 87% of firms with $100 million in revenue are private, while large technology companies often acquire disruptive private firms before they list. Panelists also warned of due diligence risks, citing special purpose vehicles that bypass broker/dealer registration and claim stakes in firms such as SpaceX. Secondaries have become a core portfolio-construction tool, with Allocate's Tracy Gallagher describing them as offering a "quasi-public" liquidity profile for late-stage positions.
Mitchell Stein, founder of ARENA Private Wealth, a $1 billion RIA, has deployed $300 million directly into private company capital tables over the past year, leading two Series B rounds and joining private company boards. Stein cited lower costs from avoiding fund-of-funds fees, greater transparency and greater pre- and post-trade control.
In retirement plans, adoption remains low. Panelists estimated private allocations in defined contribution plans at around $100 billion, out of roughly $15 trillion in assets, and projected a 5% to 10% shift toward private allocations over the next five to 10 years, potentially reaching $600 billion by 2030. Michael Esselman, CIO at One Digital, said converging forces are opening the door to private markets in 401(k)s, while Cliffwater's Sean Murray said product choice is limited for now but partnerships and target date funds with privates are expected.
Private credit is undergoing what panelists called a "healthy reset." CAIS's Tim Donaldson said the asset class fell from 40% of CAIS platform volume in 2024 to 33% in 2025 and 15% this year, though some of that decline reflects investors broadening into infrastructure, late-stage venture and growth equity. He said 77% of 102 custom model portfolios built by RIAs on CAIS include private credit. Changing interest rates have shifted middle and lower-middle-market direct lending toward lender-friendly conditions, creating attractive entry points for managers with proven fundraising capability. Demand has broadened beyond direct lending into real asset lending, royalties and legal finance. VestGen Wealth Partners CIO Bob Hostetter said he would not introduce non-daily liquid investments to clients who are not accredited, preferring to start with accredited investors and selectively using qualified vehicles.
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