Pillar, Kalshi and Susquehanna Predictions Complete Landmark Tungsten Hedge as Pressure Builds on a Defense-Critical Metal

Pillar, the AI-powered risk management platform for the physical economy, Kalshi, the derivatives exchange, and Susquehanna Predictions, a market maker and liquidity provider, announced the completion of a tungsten price hedge using event contracts on Kalshi, according to a joint Business Wire release. Pillar hedged tungsten exposure on behalf of an Ohio-based metals distributor using contracts tied to the SMM CIF Rotterdam benchmark for ammonium paratungstate. Susquehanna Predictions helped structure and price the transaction and supplied the institutional-scale liquidity needed to execute it.

The announcement frames the deal against a sharp move in tungsten, a metal with the highest melting point of any element and critical uses in armor-piercing munitions, jet engines, carbide cutting tools and semiconductors. The release states that export restrictions and production constraints have tightened global availability, that the United States has no active domestic tungsten mine production, and that expanded Defense Department procurement restrictions taking effect in 2027 will further narrow eligible sources for certain defense-related tungsten materials. APT prices have risen more than 500% and jumped as much as 94% in six weeks this spring, per the release.

Unlike oil, gold or copper, tungsten has never had a listed futures market, leaving manufacturers and suppliers limited tools to hedge. Pillar translated the client's physical exposure into a hedging strategy, Kalshi listed a contract settling on December 17, 2026, and Susquehanna Predictions structured and priced the market. The market trades on an open public order book, with prices set by participants and Kalshi not taking either side.

Pillar, founded in 2023 by former Barclays and Coinbase employees and backed by Andreessen Horowitz, has processed more than $1 billion in risk for refiners, miners, scrap dealers and manufacturers. Harsha Ramesh, CEO of Pillar, said the platform aims to give American businesses tools to secure supply chains. Nick Volbi, Head of Institutional at Susquehanna Predictions, said the transaction shows prediction markets addressing a real institutional need. Nicolas Hull, Director of Business Development at Kalshi, said tungsten is the first of a longer list of markets for risks lacking a venue.