Key Takeaways
- • London Stock Exchange Group raised its 2026 outlook on October 22, now expecting organic constant-currency growth in total income excluding recoveries of at least 8.0%, above the prior 7.0% to 7.5% range given with half-year results.
- • Third-quarter total income excluding recoveries reached GBP 2.407 billion, up 8.8% on an organic, constant-currency basis, led by Markets at 12.5% and FTSE Russell at 10.2%.
- • LSEG agreed to acquire credit-data provider Octus for $3.535 billion from funds advised by Permira and Octus management, expanding its presence in private, illiquid and distressed credit.
- • Octus is expected to generate more than $300 million of revenue in 2026 with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%; the deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027 and be neutral to EPS in 2028 and accretive thereafter.
- • LSEG also raised its expected EBITDA margin expansion to 100 to 120 basis points and guided to equity free cash flow of at least GBP 2.8 billion for 2026.
Summary
London Stock Exchange Group raised its 2026 outlook on October 22 after third-quarter income growth accelerated across its businesses. Total income excluding recoveries reached GBP 2.407 billion in the quarter, up 8.8% on an organic, constant-currency basis from GBP 2.219 billion a year earlier. Including recoveries, total income rose to GBP 2.501 billion from GBP 2.308 billion. Markets led growth at 12.5%, followed by FTSE Russell at 10.2%, Risk Intelligence at 9.8% and Data & Analytics at 5.2%. LSEG said its subscription businesses continued to accelerate and its Markets division maintained strong momentum, and it cited customer adoption of its artificial-intelligence solutions as a supporting factor.
The group now expects organic constant-currency growth in total income excluding recoveries of at least 8.0% for 2026. According to management, that would be its strongest annual growth since 2018. LSEG also raised its expected EBITDA margin expansion to 100 to 120 basis points and expects equity free cash flow of at least GBP 2.8 billion. The revised guidance gives investors a clearer view of the operating leverage available as subscription growth and trading activity develop.
Under the agreed transaction, LSEG will buy Octus for $3.535 billion from funds advised by Permira and Octus management. Octus provides proprietary credit intelligence, data and workflows focused on private, illiquid and distressed credit. LSEG plans to combine these capabilities with its existing fixed-income data, analytics and distribution. The company said Octus is expected to generate more than $300 million of revenue in 2026, with strong double-digit growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%. Management expects the acquisition to be neutral to earnings per share in 2028 and accretive thereafter.
The transaction closes a broader push into credit markets and follows LSEG's planned acquisition of Trumid's credit-trading services. Together, the two deals are intended to strengthen the group's coverage across public and private credit. The Octus deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approval and other customary conditions. Execution, integration and regulatory approval remain the key milestones for investors to monitor.
The group now expects organic constant-currency growth in total income excluding recoveries of at least 8.0% for 2026. According to management, that would be its strongest annual growth since 2018. LSEG also raised its expected EBITDA margin expansion to 100 to 120 basis points and expects equity free cash flow of at least GBP 2.8 billion. The revised guidance gives investors a clearer view of the operating leverage available as subscription growth and trading activity develop.
Under the agreed transaction, LSEG will buy Octus for $3.535 billion from funds advised by Permira and Octus management. Octus provides proprietary credit intelligence, data and workflows focused on private, illiquid and distressed credit. LSEG plans to combine these capabilities with its existing fixed-income data, analytics and distribution. The company said Octus is expected to generate more than $300 million of revenue in 2026, with strong double-digit growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 40%. Management expects the acquisition to be neutral to earnings per share in 2028 and accretive thereafter.
The transaction closes a broader push into credit markets and follows LSEG's planned acquisition of Trumid's credit-trading services. Together, the two deals are intended to strengthen the group's coverage across public and private credit. The Octus deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory approval and other customary conditions. Execution, integration and regulatory approval remain the key milestones for investors to monitor.
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