Key Takeaways
- • Corn fell sharply last week on harvest pressure and USDA data, with the USDA raising 2026 production to 16.034 billion bushels (from 15.800 billion) and ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels (from 1.567 billion).
- • Wheat closed at new lows for the move, while USDA raised production slightly and estimated ending stocks at 740 million bushels, up from 717 million last month.
- • USDA cut US All Rice production to 157.7 million cwt from 158.2 million and trimmed ending stocks to 40.0 million cwt, with rice closing at new highs for the move on hurricane-related crop risk.
- • Soybean production was estimated at 4.562 billion bushels (from 4.535 billion) with ending stocks at 315 million bushels, while China is expected to buy more US cargoes ahead of US-China summit meetings, though tariffs will remain high.
- • USDA cotton production estimate of 13.442 billion bales and ending stocks of 380 million bales (up from 260 million) pressured the market, though cotton rallied on hurricane crop-loss concerns in the Delta.
Summary
According to The PRICE Futures Group's weekly agricultural markets update, grain and oilseed markets were mixed last week as harvest pressure and USDA data shaped price action. Corn was sharply lower, with USDA estimating production at 16.034 billion bushels, yield at 181.2 bushels per acre, and ending stocks at 1.849 billion bushels. Harvest was 23% complete and 83% mature, with yields described as good but not great in parts of the Midwest. Wheat also closed at new lows for the move. USDA raised production slightly and increased ending stocks estimates to 740 million bushels from 717 million, while export sales showed improved demand. Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict reported export paces more than 50% below a year earlier.
Soybeans and soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil eased. USDA estimated production at 4.562 billion bushels with a yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, and ending stocks at 315 million bushels. The harvest was 25% complete. The report noted that China is expected to purchase additional US soybean cargoes ahead of upcoming US-China summit meetings, though tariffs will remain elevated. Concern was also raised that El Nino could affect South American soybean production this season.
Rice closed moderately higher and at new highs for the move as a hurricane was forecast to affect growing areas. USDA trimmed all-rice production to 157.7 million cwt from 158.2 million and cut ending stocks to 40.0 million cwt. Long-grain production was estimated at 103.2 million cwt. US demand was described as moderate to poor, while Asian and Indian prices were reported as firm, with El Nino risks cited for Asian output.
Cotton rallied last week on potential hurricane damage in the Delta and crop losses from open-boll quality issues. Even so, USDA estimated production at 13.442 billion bales and ending stocks at 380 million bales, up from 260 million. Crop condition was reported at 33% good to excellent, with the crop 23% harvested.
In softs, coffee prices fell in New York and London as Brazilian selling continued, while Central American premiums reached or neared record highs due to drought. Sugar closed higher in both New York and London, with Brazilian output reduced by excess rain and ethanol production drawing cane away from sugar. Cocoa was little changed as dry conditions in Ivory Coast raised concerns about 2026/27 supply, with a Reuters survey pointing to a roughly 17% decline in the main crop, though a large 2025/26 surplus keeps near-term supply ample. Orange production estimates were cut, with US output at 61.7 million boxes and Florida at 10.0 million boxes.
Soybeans and soybean meal finished higher, while soybean oil eased. USDA estimated production at 4.562 billion bushels with a yield of 53.1 bushels per acre, and ending stocks at 315 million bushels. The harvest was 25% complete. The report noted that China is expected to purchase additional US soybean cargoes ahead of upcoming US-China summit meetings, though tariffs will remain elevated. Concern was also raised that El Nino could affect South American soybean production this season.
Rice closed moderately higher and at new highs for the move as a hurricane was forecast to affect growing areas. USDA trimmed all-rice production to 157.7 million cwt from 158.2 million and cut ending stocks to 40.0 million cwt. Long-grain production was estimated at 103.2 million cwt. US demand was described as moderate to poor, while Asian and Indian prices were reported as firm, with El Nino risks cited for Asian output.
Cotton rallied last week on potential hurricane damage in the Delta and crop losses from open-boll quality issues. Even so, USDA estimated production at 13.442 billion bales and ending stocks at 380 million bales, up from 260 million. Crop condition was reported at 33% good to excellent, with the crop 23% harvested.
In softs, coffee prices fell in New York and London as Brazilian selling continued, while Central American premiums reached or neared record highs due to drought. Sugar closed higher in both New York and London, with Brazilian output reduced by excess rain and ethanol production drawing cane away from sugar. Cocoa was little changed as dry conditions in Ivory Coast raised concerns about 2026/27 supply, with a Reuters survey pointing to a roughly 17% decline in the main crop, though a large 2025/26 surplus keeps near-term supply ample. Orange production estimates were cut, with US output at 61.7 million boxes and Florida at 10.0 million boxes.
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