Key Takeaways
- • Cotton held slightly higher in consolidation trading as U.S. harvest progress reached 52% harvested and 89% of bolls open, with USDA rating crop conditions at 33% good to excellent; December support sits at 77.10, 75.50 and 74.80 cents and resistance at 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30.
- • Weekly USDA export sales for the week ended Oct 22 showed upland cotton net sales of 216.5 thousand running bales, with 5,665.2 thousand bales in total commitments this year.
- • Arabica coffee and cocoa were under pressure: New York and London coffee trends were down, with Central American premiums at or near record highs due to drought, while Ivorian cocoa arrivals fell 52% from last year to 23,000 metric tons.
- • Sugar trends were down in both New York and London, as Brazilian refineries favored ethanol over sugar amid higher world petroleum prices.
- • Brazil's presidential election, in which Lula defeated Bolsonaro, pressured the real and weighed on Brazilian-linked agricultural prices across cotton, coffee, sugar, soybeans and wheat.
Summary
Cotton closed a little higher in consolidation trading on October 28 despite advancing harvest progress, according to the Jack Scoville softs report. The crop was 52% harvested and 89% of bolls were open, with conditions in good shape. Forecasts pointed to continued dryness in Texas, the Delta and the Southeast, with warm temperatures across all growing areas. Overnight chart trends were mixed to down. USDA export data for the week ended October 22 showed upland cotton net sales of 216.5 thousand running bales, with total commitments of 5,665.2 thousand bales this year and 3,638.9 thousand bales undelivered. Pima cotton net sales totaled 0.1 thousand bales.
Coffee prices were lower in New York and London. Brazil's conditions were described as good for next-crop development as the wet season arrived, though excess El Nino-linked rains had lent near-term support to arabica on quality concerns. Central America remained dry, and premiums there were at or near record highs. The ICO average price stood at 254.54 cents per pound. New York trends were down, with support at 284.00, 278.00 and 270.00 cents for December.
Sugar fell in both markets on follow-through selling following Brazil's election result. Trends were down in New York and London. Brazilian refineries were directing output toward ethanol, supported by higher world petroleum prices, and Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rain. Indian output was reduced by hot, dry weather.
Cocoa showed mixed results, with New York mixed and London higher, though daily trends were turning down. A large main crop harvest in West Africa has turned dry for the next crop, raising concerns about 2026/27 Ivorian production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample. Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports were 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year.
FCOJ futures were mixed, with trends still tilting lower. USDA estimated U.S. orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, and Florida production at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier. Drought affected Florida trees.
Coffee prices were lower in New York and London. Brazil's conditions were described as good for next-crop development as the wet season arrived, though excess El Nino-linked rains had lent near-term support to arabica on quality concerns. Central America remained dry, and premiums there were at or near record highs. The ICO average price stood at 254.54 cents per pound. New York trends were down, with support at 284.00, 278.00 and 270.00 cents for December.
Sugar fell in both markets on follow-through selling following Brazil's election result. Trends were down in New York and London. Brazilian refineries were directing output toward ethanol, supported by higher world petroleum prices, and Brazilian production dropped 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rain. Indian output was reduced by hot, dry weather.
Cocoa showed mixed results, with New York mixed and London higher, though daily trends were turning down. A large main crop harvest in West Africa has turned dry for the next crop, raising concerns about 2026/27 Ivorian production, although a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample. Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports were 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year.
FCOJ futures were mixed, with trends still tilting lower. USDA estimated U.S. orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, and Florida production at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million a year earlier. Drought affected Florida trees.
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