Key Takeaways
- • Cotton finished higher last week on crude oil strength despite advancing harvest progress; USDA showed 35% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition and the crop 41% harvested as of the report.
- • Coffee New York closed higher while London fell, as Brazilian sellers moved cargoes but at a slower pace, and Central American premiums reached or neared record highs due to drought.
- • Sugar prices fell in New York and London last week, with trends down in both markets as Brazilian refiners favored ethanol production over sugar.
- • Cocoa arrivals at Ivorian ports reached 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from last year, as dry conditions raised concerns over 2026/27 production.
- • FCOJ futures were slightly lower and range-bound, with USDA estimating US orange production at 61.7 million boxes versus 63.5 million last year.
Summary
Cotton futures were higher last week, supported in part by strength in crude oil futures, even as the harvest advanced. According to the report, USDA data showed the crop 35% good to excellent and 41% harvested, with 85% of bolls opening. Forecasts pointed to continued dry conditions in Texas, the Delta, and the Southeast, with warm temperatures across all growing areas. December cotton support was cited at 79.30, 77.10 and 75.50 cents, with resistance at 82.40, 84.00 and 85.30.
In coffee, New York closed higher and London lower last week as Brazilian sellers continued to export, though at a reduced pace, and selling was also noted in Asia. Producers in Brazil were holding back sales amid recent price weakness, while the Brazilian harvest was nearly complete despite increased rainfall. Arabica prices received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains. Central America remained dry, and premiums there were at or near record highs. The ICO composite averaged 264.05 cents per pound.
Sugar prices were lower in New York and London last week, with both markets trending down, although New York showed a weekly continuation rally. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south region after drought concerns, but refiners there are favoring ethanol production over sugar as higher petroleum prices support ethanol values. Indian output has fallen after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could weigh on production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rain.
Cocoa prices in New York and London both closed slightly lower, with daily trends turning down. West African main-crop arrivals have been substantial, but dry conditions in Ivory Coast have raised concerns about 2026/27 output, with Ivorian farmers warning poor rainfall could bring the September-to-February main crop to an early end. Ivorian port arrivals totaled 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from a year earlier. Analysts note a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample, while demand has begun to recover from high prices seen last year.
FCOJ futures were slightly lower and remained in a range, with daily trends mixed to up. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million previously. Showers in Florida are aiding tree recovery, while conditions are considered good in Mexico and rains are developing in Brazil with the rainy season starting on schedule.
In coffee, New York closed higher and London lower last week as Brazilian sellers continued to export, though at a reduced pace, and selling was also noted in Asia. Producers in Brazil were holding back sales amid recent price weakness, while the Brazilian harvest was nearly complete despite increased rainfall. Arabica prices received near-term support from quality concerns tied to excess El Nino-linked rains. Central America remained dry, and premiums there were at or near record highs. The ICO composite averaged 264.05 cents per pound.
Sugar prices were lower in New York and London last week, with both markets trending down, although New York showed a weekly continuation rally. Rains have returned to Brazil's center-south region after drought concerns, but refiners there are favoring ethanol production over sugar as higher petroleum prices support ethanol values. Indian output has fallen after hot, dry conditions, and El Nino could weigh on production elsewhere in Asia. Brazilian production fell 41.6% in the first half of September due to excess rain.
Cocoa prices in New York and London both closed slightly lower, with daily trends turning down. West African main-crop arrivals have been substantial, but dry conditions in Ivory Coast have raised concerns about 2026/27 output, with Ivorian farmers warning poor rainfall could bring the September-to-February main crop to an early end. Ivorian port arrivals totaled 23,000 metric tons in the week, down 52% from a year earlier. Analysts note a large global surplus in 2025/26 keeps near-term supplies ample, while demand has begun to recover from high prices seen last year.
FCOJ futures were slightly lower and remained in a range, with daily trends mixed to up. USDA estimated US orange production at 61.7 million boxes, down from 63.5 million last year, with Florida at 10.0 million boxes versus 13 million previously. Showers in Florida are aiding tree recovery, while conditions are considered good in Mexico and rains are developing in Brazil with the rainy season starting on schedule.
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