Leaves are Changing. Ag Marketing Report 10/05/2026

As the weather cools down, and we get into the middle of fall, things are changing. Leaves are beginning to change color from their dark green to shades of yellow, orange, or even red. As the season change, so were the markets this week. A bearish USDA report turned the recent rally in the grains to sharp losses this week. The cotton market joined in, as well as the livestock seeing more modest changes. As we get past the US growing season and further into harvest, the markets will also be changing their focus from the US to the South American season.

Corn bulls ran out of ammo this week, as December fell for a 30 ½ cent loss since last Friday and failing to hold above $5. The quarterly Grain Stocks report from NASS was the problem, with September 1 stocks of corn at 2.095 billion bushels. That was 173 mbu higher vs. the WASDE estimate for 2025/26 US corn ending stocks. The weekly Crop Progress data showed 18% of the US corn harvest complete as of September 20, in line with average. Condition ratings were steady this week at 57% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index steady at 347. EIA showed ethanol production dropping another 21,000 in the week of 9/18 at 1.007 million barrels per day. Stocks were back down 818,000 barrels in that week 23.865 million barrels. USDA’s monthly Grain Crushing report showed a total of 477.7 mbu of corn used for ethanol in August, 0.3% above last month and 4% larger yr/yr. Export Sales data from showed a total of just 535,989 MT of 2026/27 sales in the week of 9/24. CFTC data showed managed money cutting back 36,587 contracts from their net long position in corn futures and options. As of September 29, their net long position was 377,850 contracts
The wheat complex fell in sympathy with the corn this week, as all three exchanges were lower. CBT soft red winter futures fell another 20 1/4 cents, with KC hard red winter futures slipping 26 ¾ cents in the December contract. HRS futures were 15 ½ cents in the red. USDA’s Small Grains Summary showed all wheat production at 1.534 bbu, which was up just 3 mbu from the August Crop Production report. NASS released their quarterly Grain Stocks data, with September 1 stocks tallied at 1.846 billion bushels. That would was a drop of 288 mbu from a year ago and below estimates. Weekly Crop Progress data from NASS showed the winter wheat planting progress at 27% complete as of last Sunday. Export Sales data from the week of September 24 showed wheat sales for 2026/27 at 289,255 MT. Commitments of Traders data showed managed money adding another 8,526 contracts to their net short in CBT wheat futures and options as of September 22, to 21,670 contracts. Spec traders in KC wheat cutting back from their net long by another 11,033 contracts, at 30,710 contracts as of Tuesday.
 
Soybeans joined in on the weakness this week with November down 40 ¾ cents. December soybean meal was back down $23.50 on the week, with December bean oil posting a 78 point gain. Buyers were quieter this week, with just 105,000 MT sold via daily announcements to unknown destinations. China is leaving the soybean tariffs on, for now, following the US/China meeting last week, leading just state-owned buyers competitive. NASS Grain Stocks data showed 315 mbu of soybeans at the end of August, i.e. the end of the 2025/26 marketing year. That was 10 mbu tighter compared to last year and the WASDE estimate. Monday’s Crop Progress data showed the US soybean harvest at 17% by September 27, matching average. Crop ratings were steady at 58% of the US soybean crop in good or excellent condition and Brugler500 index at to 352. Export Sales data showed 2026/27 soybean bookings at just 1.034 MMT in the week ending on September 24. August soybean crush was tallied at 209.6 mbu this week, down 5.53% from July and was 5.86% larger than last year.mCFTC data from Friday showed managed money adding back to their previous record net long in soybean futures and options by 23,877 contracts in the week of 9/29 to 241,164 contracts.
 
Cattle continued to coil this week, as October was just a tick lower on the week. Cash trade came in at $220-222 in the North this week as the Southern sales were at $226. October feeder also trended in a sideways pattern slipping just 30 cents this week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down another $1.95 week/week to $336.84. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowing to $19.70. Choice boxes was down $4.64/cwt on the week to $374.19, as Select was down $1.27 to $354.49. Weekly beef production was back up 13.2% from the week prior at 487 million lbs, but down 2.8% from last year. Production year to date is now down 5.2% above last year on a 7.5% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money adding back 4,321 contracts to their net long position in the week of 9/29, taking the net long in live cattle to 51,304 contracts. In feeders, specs were adding 729 contracts to a net long of 7,638 contracts.
 
Hogs slipped just 35 cents for the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.49 this week at $80.71 as of September 30. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout continues to face pressure, with this week’s losses at $2.26 to $84.48/cwt. The butt, picnic, and rib were the primals reported higher. Weekly pork production was up 0.5% from the week prior at 545.7 million lbs, which was down 2.3% from the same week last year. Year to date production is down 0.1% on a 1% drop in slaughter. CFTC data showed managed money taking their net short position in lean hog futures and options to another record in the week of 9/29, an increase of 8,638 contracts, taking the net short to 44,186 contracts.
 
Cotton saw late week gains on Friday, but ended the week with contracts 383 points lower. Crop Progress data from Monday showed 70% of the US cotton with bolls opening as of Sunday, as the crop was 17% harvested. Condition ratings were up 1 percentage points at 35% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index down 1 to 294. Weekly Export Sales data from the week of 9/17 saw sales improve to 202,567 RB for 2026/27 sales, with shipments reported at 149,507 RB. The Adjusted World Price was down 93 points to 65.16 cents/lb on Thursday. Spec traders trimmed back their net long in the week of September 29 by 7,017 contracts, taking the position to 74,596 contracts net long.
 
Market Watch
 
We start the first full week of October with the Monday morning Export Inspections report, as NASS will release the weekly Crop Progress report in the afternoon. Monday is also first notice day for October live cattle futures. The EIA report will be released on Wednesday morning. Thursday will see the Export Sales report in the morning, as well as the last trade day for October cotton futures.  Friday will round things out with the monthly Crop Production, WASDE and Cotton Ginnings report.
 
Tech Talk: November Soybeans

November soybeans had a rough start to the week after China failed to put beans on their list of tariff exclusions. That will limit purchases to state owned entities and much buying past the 25 MMT without any trade deal. The trade was not looking for that and sold off. The selling wasn’t done, as Friday posted new lows for the week at $12.73 ¼. The good news for the bulls? After rallying for the better part of 9 months, there is a lot of support lines to draw from. The one that tried to hold on Friday was the 40-day moving average at $12.73. Beyond that is the 38.2% Fib retracement off the rally from August at $12.70 ¼. There is also a triangle/pennant formation from September that was broken on Monday and points to $12.70. If buyers fail to show up near that area, there is downside rise to $12.50-$12.30. The bad news for the bulls? MACD is bearish after a solid sell signal and increasing in momentum. Stochastics provide little argument for buyers to show up as they are still bearish.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
 
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