Forecast bias is often treated as an abstract behavioral trait. Investors observe data, form expectations, and make decisions. But in reality, these biases shape real trades. Some investors extrapolate from recent performance. Others react in the opposite direction, and these differences affect which stocks they buy, which stocks they sell, and how they move money into equities. This paper introduces a new perspective. Forecast bias is not just about stated beliefs. It shows up directly in indiv...
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