Key Takeaways
- • Metsmerized argues that Steve Cohen's Mets have never truly "vastly outbid" the field for a top free agent, and that landing Tarik Skubal may require doing so for the first time in the Cohen era.
- • Analysts cited in the piece, including Chelsea Janes (SNY) and Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo (ESPN), view the Mets as the presumptive high bidder for Skubal, while the Dodgers are expected to make an offer similar to their bid for Kyle Tucker.
- • Past Mets pursuits, including Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Kyle Schwarber, ended with the Mets offering deals that were close to rivals' offers or better only on technicalities, such as AAV versus guaranteed money.
- • The piece suggests the Mets may need to offer roughly 20% to 60% or more above the Dodgers' offer to secure Skubal, and must also improve their ability to read bidding wars.
Summary
The Mets are widely seen as the favorites for left-handed ace Tarik Skubal this offseason. Chelsea Janes of SNY wrote that "if Cohen decides he wants Skubal, the Mets will pay whatever it takes to get him." Alden Gonzalez of ESPN noted that the outcome will come down to price, and whether the Dodgers would match Steve Cohen's Mets or other suitors given the threat of a salary cap. Jorge Castillo of ESPN described the Mets as the more aggressive bidder and cited a clear need for a top-tier starter.
Metsmerized argues that the Mets have not yet truly gone "all out" in free agency under Cohen. To qualify, the team would need to be the high bidder by a large margin, not merely offer a better deal on a technicality, such as a higher AAV with less guaranteed money, or edge out a rival by a small amount. The article notes that reports suggest the Dodgers will offer Skubal something similar to their Kyle Tucker offer, and that Skubal would be unlikely to choose the Mets if offers were comparable.
The article reviews recent Mets pursuits. On Juan Soto, Soto said in an interview with Abriendo Sports that the Mets were not the high bidder; the Red Sox and Blue Jays offers were never made public, and the Yankees' offer may have been more lucrative due to a clean opt-out, according to ESPN's Buster Olney and Jeff Passan. On Kyle Tucker, the Mets and Dodgers made similar short-term offers, and Tucker chose the Dodgers. On Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Mets' final offer was reportedly $25 million above the Yankees' $300 million offer, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and the Dodgers matched it immediately. The Mets also circled Kyle Schwarber, offering three years and $120 million, per Michael Marino, which had the highest reported AAV but fewer total dollars than the Phillies' eventual offer. Scherzer and Verlander deals were short-term and not viewed as vastly outspending the market. The Bo Bichette contract included high AAV and opt-outs, but the article characterizes Cohen's pattern as favoring shorter, high-AAV deals rather than outsized term and value.
The piece concludes that the Mets will likely need to do what they have not done in the Cohen era: vastly outspend to land a target, potentially paying 20%, 40%, 60% or more above the Dodgers' offer. It also argues the Mets must improve their ability to read markets and understand their position in bidding wars. Metsmerized frames a truly dominant offer as a first for the franchise under Cohen.
Metsmerized argues that the Mets have not yet truly gone "all out" in free agency under Cohen. To qualify, the team would need to be the high bidder by a large margin, not merely offer a better deal on a technicality, such as a higher AAV with less guaranteed money, or edge out a rival by a small amount. The article notes that reports suggest the Dodgers will offer Skubal something similar to their Kyle Tucker offer, and that Skubal would be unlikely to choose the Mets if offers were comparable.
The article reviews recent Mets pursuits. On Juan Soto, Soto said in an interview with Abriendo Sports that the Mets were not the high bidder; the Red Sox and Blue Jays offers were never made public, and the Yankees' offer may have been more lucrative due to a clean opt-out, according to ESPN's Buster Olney and Jeff Passan. On Kyle Tucker, the Mets and Dodgers made similar short-term offers, and Tucker chose the Dodgers. On Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Mets' final offer was reportedly $25 million above the Yankees' $300 million offer, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, and the Dodgers matched it immediately. The Mets also circled Kyle Schwarber, offering three years and $120 million, per Michael Marino, which had the highest reported AAV but fewer total dollars than the Phillies' eventual offer. Scherzer and Verlander deals were short-term and not viewed as vastly outspending the market. The Bo Bichette contract included high AAV and opt-outs, but the article characterizes Cohen's pattern as favoring shorter, high-AAV deals rather than outsized term and value.
The piece concludes that the Mets will likely need to do what they have not done in the Cohen era: vastly outspend to land a target, potentially paying 20%, 40%, 60% or more above the Dodgers' offer. It also argues the Mets must improve their ability to read markets and understand their position in bidding wars. Metsmerized frames a truly dominant offer as a first for the franchise under Cohen.
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