Trend-Following Hedge Funds Returned 15.7% Through the Third Quarter, Outpacing the S&P 500:

HedgeCo.Net — Computer-driven trend-following hedge funds have become one of the standout strategies of 2026. Societe Generale’s SG CTA Index, the main benchmark for commodity trading advisors, returned 15.7% in the nine months through the end of the third quarter, compared with an 11.7% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period, according to reporting by CNBC and TokenPost published on October 6.
The gains came from a sequence of large, persistent macro moves. Managers entered September’s bond sell-off positioned short U.S. Treasurys, adding to earlier profits from bullish dollar positions and from long crude oil exposure that the strategies began building in January, before the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. “CTAs are crushing the rest of the hedge fund world this year,” Andrew Beer, managing member at Dynamic Beta Investments, told CNBC, describing the sector’s positioning as “early, contrarian and right.”
Nicolas Gaussel, chief executive and chief investment officer of Metori Capital Management, pointed to the market structure behind the returns: a positive correlation between equities and bonds and a negative correlation between energy and both asset classes. That combination has been difficult for traditional 60/40 portfolios, because bonds have neither performed nor diversified equity risk, while trend followers can profit directly by shorting bonds and short-term interest rates.
The strength is not limited to pure CTAs. Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha fund is up 18.4% year to date through September, according to Hedgeweek and Reuters-based reporting, as macro strategies rebounded. Discretionary equity managers had a harder month in September, when swings in crowded AI-related positions and rising yields weighed on fundamental books, widening the gap between systematic and discretionary returns heading into the final quarter.
For allocators, the numbers strengthen the case for managed futures as a genuine diversifier in a regime where bonds no longer reliably hedge equities. But the outlook depends heavily on energy prices and interest rates, said Yung-Shin Kung, chief investment officer at Mast Investments, who cautioned that risk in many CTA books has grown increasingly concentrated. Investors adding exposure after a strong run should look closely at how much of each manager’s year rests on a handful of rates and oil trends that could reverse quickly.