Key Takeaways
- • Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CIO of Tudor Investment, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on October 13, 2026 that "2027 is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market."
- • Jones cited a "most negative flow picture" for U.S. equities since roughly 2002, driven by heavy equity supply from large AI-related IPOs and secondary offerings.
- • Corporate buybacks and M&A, which he said have supported the four-year bull market by reducing equity supply, are turning into a headwind as Anthropic, OpenAI and the recently completed SpaceX offering add supply.
- • Jones said he will be "short the whole year," arguing there is little value in equities, and compared the current period to 1998-2002, when repeated IPO and lock-up expirations kept adding supply.
- • Jones said he is long oil, which he expects could rally another $20 to $25 a barrel after the midterms, a move he believes the stock market will "hate."
Summary
Legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, that 2027 could be a difficult year for U.S. equities. According to CNBC, Jones, founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment, attributed the outlook primarily to rising equity supply from large technology listings. "You've probably got the most negative flow picture for the U.S. stock market that we've had, say, since 2002," he said.
Jones argued that corporate buybacks and mergers and acquisitions have been a tailwind for most of the current four-year bull market because they reduced the supply of shares. That dynamic is now reversing. He pointed to major offerings expected from Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI sector, a recently completed SpaceX offering, and likely further secondary offerings as companies raise capital to fund the AI buildout.
The bull market, now in its fourth year, has seen the S&P 500 more than double, supported by expectations for AI's transformative potential. Investors, however, have begun to worry that the rally may lose momentum amid concerns about higher inflation, rising bond yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Jones said in May that he had bought more AI-linked stocks while watching for parallels with earlier tech booms, and he has likened current conditions to 1999, roughly a year before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. In his remarks on Tuesday, he drew a direct comparison to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a wave of IPOs and unlocks "kept adding supply to the market," making those years the easiest in which to be short.
On positioning, Jones said he will be short equities through the year and that he is long oil. He said oil could rally another $20 to $25 after the midterm elections and that the stock market would "hate it" if that occurred. The comments are Jones's latest views on a bull market he has repeatedly described as near its late stages.
Jones argued that corporate buybacks and mergers and acquisitions have been a tailwind for most of the current four-year bull market because they reduced the supply of shares. That dynamic is now reversing. He pointed to major offerings expected from Anthropic and OpenAI in the AI sector, a recently completed SpaceX offering, and likely further secondary offerings as companies raise capital to fund the AI buildout.
The bull market, now in its fourth year, has seen the S&P 500 more than double, supported by expectations for AI's transformative potential. Investors, however, have begun to worry that the rally may lose momentum amid concerns about higher inflation, rising bond yields and a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Jones said in May that he had bought more AI-linked stocks while watching for parallels with earlier tech booms, and he has likened current conditions to 1999, roughly a year before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000. In his remarks on Tuesday, he drew a direct comparison to the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a wave of IPOs and unlocks "kept adding supply to the market," making those years the easiest in which to be short.
On positioning, Jones said he will be short equities through the year and that he is long oil. He said oil could rally another $20 to $25 after the midterm elections and that the stock market would "hate it" if that occurred. The comments are Jones's latest views on a bull market he has repeatedly described as near its late stages.
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