Key Takeaways
- • David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital bought a new stake of 2.24 million shares in Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) worth $123 million as of June 30, 2026, per its 13F filing, making FBIN its seventh-largest US holding at 3.1% of its $3.91 billion US equity portfolio.
- • Southeastern Asset Management, led by Mason Hawkins, cut its FBIN stake by 22% (about 21% per the headline) but still held 1.69 million shares worth $93 million, representing 4.8% of its $1.92 billion US stock portfolio.
- • Fortune Brands' Q2 sales fell 4% to $1.2 billion, and the company's full-year EPS guidance of $3.22-$3.52 was propped up by a $0.52-per-share tariff refund; excluding that boost, the range would have been $0.30 lower at both ends.
- • Analysts expect normalized EPS to decline from $3.61 in 2025 to $3.30 in 2027 before recovering to $3.95 in 2028, though the 2028 estimate rests on only nine analysts.
- • The stock has fallen 18% since June 30, trades at roughly 15x forward earnings in line with its five-year average, and sits 31% below its 52-week high; the Q3 report in early November is the next key test.
Summary
Two prominent funds took opposite positions in Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) during the second quarter of 2026. According to each fund's 13F filing for the quarter ended June 30, filed August 14, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital initiated a stake of 2.24 million shares valued at $123 million, while Mason Hawkins' Southeastern Asset Management reduced its holding by roughly 22%. Even after the cut, Southeastern still held 1.69 million shares worth $93 million. Because a 13F reflects holdings only on the quarter's final day, neither filing discloses trade timing, execution prices, or rationale.
Fortune Brands' operating trajectory has weakened. In its Q2 report on August 4, the company posted sales down 4% to $1.2 billion. Earnings per share before charges of $1.35 included a $0.52-per-share benefit from tariff refunds, and the quarter also carried a $1.44-per-share impairment charge. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $3.22-$3.52, but the company's own figures indicate that the raise came entirely from the refunds; without them, the range would have dropped by $0.30 at both ends. Management attributed the pressure partly to spending needed to fix execution issues, particularly in its Water business, and had earlier cited inconsistent execution in its May 7 Q1 release.
According to TIKR, analysts expect normalized EPS to decline from $3.61 in 2025 to $3.30 in 2027, with a rebound to $3.95 in 2028. That 2028 figure is supported by only nine analysts, compared with 21 covering 2027. The stock trades at about 15x forward earnings, in line with its five-year average, after dipping to as low as 8x in September 2022 and reaching 20x in October 2024. The average analyst price target has fallen from $65 a year ago to $51, roughly 14% above the last close, with targets ranging from $41 to $70 across 19 analysts.
The bull case rests on a recovery in which higher spending fixes execution and earnings reach the 2028 consensus. The bear case is that buyers are paying a full multiple for earnings forecast to keep falling through 2027. TIKR's commentary favors Southeastern's reduction for now, and identifies the Q3 report in early November and the Q3 13F filings due by November 16 as the next checkpoints for whether Einhorn added to his position and whether Southeastern continued selling.
Fortune Brands' operating trajectory has weakened. In its Q2 report on August 4, the company posted sales down 4% to $1.2 billion. Earnings per share before charges of $1.35 included a $0.52-per-share benefit from tariff refunds, and the quarter also carried a $1.44-per-share impairment charge. Management raised full-year EPS guidance to $3.22-$3.52, but the company's own figures indicate that the raise came entirely from the refunds; without them, the range would have dropped by $0.30 at both ends. Management attributed the pressure partly to spending needed to fix execution issues, particularly in its Water business, and had earlier cited inconsistent execution in its May 7 Q1 release.
According to TIKR, analysts expect normalized EPS to decline from $3.61 in 2025 to $3.30 in 2027, with a rebound to $3.95 in 2028. That 2028 figure is supported by only nine analysts, compared with 21 covering 2027. The stock trades at about 15x forward earnings, in line with its five-year average, after dipping to as low as 8x in September 2022 and reaching 20x in October 2024. The average analyst price target has fallen from $65 a year ago to $51, roughly 14% above the last close, with targets ranging from $41 to $70 across 19 analysts.
The bull case rests on a recovery in which higher spending fixes execution and earnings reach the 2028 consensus. The bear case is that buyers are paying a full multiple for earnings forecast to keep falling through 2027. TIKR's commentary favors Southeastern's reduction for now, and identifies the Q3 report in early November and the Q3 13F filings due by November 16 as the next checkpoints for whether Einhorn added to his position and whether Southeastern continued selling.
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