Key Takeaways
- • Bill Ackman predicts Israel will produce a $1 trillion market-capitalisation company within five years, and said he would be surprised if it did not happen within 10, speaking at Sheba Medical Centre's annual ARC summit in Tel Aviv.
- • Ackman forecasts an "amazing 2027" for equities once wartime energy costs fade, citing US oil up 72% and Brent crude up 83% in 2026 and consumer inflation at 3.7% in September.
- • Pershing Square is holding core positions in Meta Platforms, Netflix and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with Ackman saying the GSEs now hold five times their historic capital reserves and their shares could rise tenfold.
- • Ackman's Israel thesis rests on Israeli founders scaling independent multinationals, a small sovereign footprint, and a regional stability dividend tied to US policy under President Donald Trump.
Summary
Pershing Square Capital Management founder Bill Ackman has outlined a macro thesis that Israel will produce a $1 trillion market-capitalisation company within the decade, while global equities are poised for a strong 2027 once wartime energy pressures ease. Speaking at Sheba Medical Centre's annual ARC summit in Tel Aviv, Ackman said, "There will be a trillion dollar market cap company that comes out of Israel. I would be surprised if not in the next five years, let alone the next 10." He attributed the prospect to Israeli founders increasingly choosing to scale independent multinational platforms rather than selling intellectual property early, and to modest domestic footprints that allow tech firms to capitalise on automated infrastructure without severe sovereign drag. He also argued that recent Middle Eastern conflicts have reset the regional power dynamic, reducing systemic risk, and linked this to US President Donald Trump's focus on neutralising regional threats, which he described as a potential "massive peace dividend" for global supply chains. Ackman noted that he and his wife, Neri Oxman, bought a 5% stake in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange in 2024.
Appearing on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, Ackman tied his outlook to broader markets. He cited US oil up 72% and Brent crude up 83% through 2026, and consumer inflation of 3.7% in September, which keeps the Federal Reserve's borrowing costs elevated against its 2% target. He characterised these pressures as temporary, saying, "Once the overhang of the war is done" and with possible progress on Russia-Ukraine, energy prices could fall substantially, "We're going to have an amazing 2027."
Ackman said Pershing Square is adding to existing holdings rather than moving to cash. He pointed to Meta Platforms, where the firm disclosed a major position in February, and dismissed a 6% share decline following third-quarter earnings as short-term noise. He cited Meta's custom AI agent, Muse, and its compute investment as positioning the company as a primary gateway for digital agents. He also defended Netflix, which fell more than 5% on mixed advertising guidance before recovering 3%; Ackman called it a "high growth utility" trading at 18 times earnings, one of its lowest historic valuations against expected mid-to-high teens profit growth.
His highest-conviction position is in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Ackman said both now hold five times their historic capital reserves after years of balance-sheet rebuilding and predicted the shares could eventually rise tenfold.
Appearing on CNBC's Squawk on the Street, Ackman tied his outlook to broader markets. He cited US oil up 72% and Brent crude up 83% through 2026, and consumer inflation of 3.7% in September, which keeps the Federal Reserve's borrowing costs elevated against its 2% target. He characterised these pressures as temporary, saying, "Once the overhang of the war is done" and with possible progress on Russia-Ukraine, energy prices could fall substantially, "We're going to have an amazing 2027."
Ackman said Pershing Square is adding to existing holdings rather than moving to cash. He pointed to Meta Platforms, where the firm disclosed a major position in February, and dismissed a 6% share decline following third-quarter earnings as short-term noise. He cited Meta's custom AI agent, Muse, and its compute investment as positioning the company as a primary gateway for digital agents. He also defended Netflix, which fell more than 5% on mixed advertising guidance before recovering 3%; Ackman called it a "high growth utility" trading at 18 times earnings, one of its lowest historic valuations against expected mid-to-high teens profit growth.
His highest-conviction position is in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Ackman said both now hold five times their historic capital reserves after years of balance-sheet rebuilding and predicted the shares could eventually rise tenfold.
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