Bitwise: "Whether AI Rallies or Crashes, Bitcoin Goes Up"

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has released an analysis arguing that Bitcoin's price will rise over the long term regardless of how the macroeconomic scenarios surrounding artificial intelligence unfold. In a note sent to investors on the 15th (local time), Hougan compared the situation to a "choose-your-own-adventure" novel, in which the path may diverge sharply but often reaches the same ending. He described the current range of macro outlooks as the widest of his investment career, noting that optimists project AI could double US gross domestic product while pessimists warn of human extinction.

In the first scenario, AI ushers in an era of "hyper-abundance." Hougan argued that even as AI expands the supply of knowledge and intellectual labor, assets that cannot be replicated or produced in additional quantities would rise in relative value. He cited coastal land, gold, and Bitcoin as examples. In the second scenario, an AI investment bubble bursts and triggers a recession similar to the 2008 global financial crisis. Hougan acknowledged Bitcoin could initially fall alongside other risk assets, but assessed the likelihood of large-scale US government intervention as "nearly 100%," describing AI infrastructure buildout as "the largest infrastructure investment in American history." He argued that the resulting liquidity injections could intensify fiat currency debasement concerns, a dynamic he said favors Bitcoin's capped supply. "This is precisely the environment Bitcoin was born for," he said.

In the third scenario, the economy continues on a path of moderate growth. Assuming GDP growth of about 3% and interest rates near 4%, Hougan believes Bitcoin can sustain its current growth trajectory through continued ETF inflows, broader adoption among investment advisors, and ongoing corporate and sovereign balance-sheet additions. He added that rising government debt could broaden Bitcoin's investor base even without a major macro shock, summarizing the point as "Bitcoin wins by showing up."

The analysis comes amid growing macroeconomic anxiety about AI. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned this week that a halt in data-center construction could tip the US economy into recession, underscoring AI infrastructure investment as a variable that could shape the broader economy. Hougan stressed that he does not expect Bitcoin to rise in a straight line. He noted that during the COVID-19 market crash in 2020, Bitcoin fell 50% within days before rising roughly 20-fold from its lows. He identified aggressive government regulation of Bitcoin worldwide and advances in quantum computing as primary risks, including the possibility that quantum computers could break the cryptography protecting older Bitcoin wallets. Hougan concluded that the big macroeconomic questions "matter less than most people think," and that Bitcoin's long-term investment appeal is likely to increase regardless of which path the AI-era economy follows.