Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin futures open interest stood at 704,000 BTC, roughly $51 billion in gross notional at an illustrative $72,000, the highest since Sept. 24 according to DWF Labs' Martin Lee, even as spot market liquidity continued to thin.
- • The Treasury's 30-year bond auction on Nov. 12 drew a 2.36 bid-to-cover ratio versus 2.54 in October, and the 10-year sale on Nov. 10 fell to 2.46 from 2.77, signaling weaker appetite for duration.
- • Glassnode found resting bids within 5% of price outweighing asks on Binance and Coinbase since Nov. 5, with the largest concentration between $68,000 and $72,500, but Bitcoin fell below $72,000 on Nov. 12.
- • Roughly $2 billion of US spot ETF outflows occurred from Nov. 2 through Nov. 11, and the 30-day average Coinbase premium is negative at its deepest discount since February.
- • Glassnode's key levels include a True Market Mean near $77,500 and a modeled liquidation concentration at $59,500 to $62,600, which the analysis frames as a possible pressure zone rather than a price target.
Summary
Bitcoin futures open interest reached 704,000 BTC this week, the highest level since Sept. 24, according to DWF Labs' Martin Lee, yet the article argues that thinning spot liquidity and weaker government bond demand leave the market with less cash to fuel a rebound. Open interest measures outstanding contracts and mixes long bets, short bets and hedges, so it describes positioning rather than fresh capital. Bitcoin options open interest recovered to 447,000 BTC after a dip between Nov. 6 and Nov. 9, but remained 5% to 10% below October levels. Bitcoin futures open interest is about 12% below its 2026 high, while Ethereum's is down about 30% since May and Solana's about 23% since June.
Treasury auction data cited in the article points to softer demand for US debt. The $25 billion 30-year bond auction on Nov. 12 cleared at 5.441% against a 5.437% when-issued yield, a 0.4-basis-point tail, with a bid-to-cover of 2.36 versus 2.54 in October. The 10-year sale two days earlier drew a bid-to-cover of 2.46 against 2.77 in October, with indirect bidders taking about 61.2% of competitive awards versus 80.3% in October. The article notes that the 30-year result sits within the range of recent sales and that the Treasury said demand for short-term bills remained strong, so the auctions indicate weaker appetite for duration rather than a broad retreat from US debt. Two-year yields near 4.835% and 10-year yields near 5.068% on Nov. 12 make cash and government debt more competitive with Bitcoin. Lee sees little chance of liquidity rotating into crypto until uncertainty from the midterms and a near-certain December rate hike clears.
On the spot side, Glassnode's Nov. 11 analysis found resting bids outweighing asks on Binance and Coinbase, with the largest concentration between $68,000 and $72,500. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are accumulating, while other cohorts are distributing. Bitcoin fell below $72,000 on Nov. 12 with an intraday low near $71,255. About 35% of short-term holder supply is in profit, and Bitcoin trades below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, according to CryptoQuant, which reported profitable supply falling from more than 15 million BTC to about 11 million. The 30-day average Coinbase premium is negative, with its deepest discount since February, and stablecoin supply contracted $14 billion in 30 days, the fastest pace since June 2022. Farside Investors data showed about $2 billion of US spot ETF outflows from Nov. 2 through Nov. 11, including $300 million on Nov. 11.
Lee argued that outflows accelerate at bottoms and inflows at tops. DWF Labs' Oct. 22 study of 694 trading days found ETF flows correlated 0.54 with Bitcoin's prior five-day return and only 0.03 with its next five-day return. Glassnode places the True Market Mean near $77,500, a modeled six-month liquidation concentration at $59,500 to $62,600, a June low near $58,500 and a short-liquidation cluster near $87,500. The article says a recovery would gain support if buyers absorb selling in the $68,000 to $72,500 band, Bitcoin reclaims $75,600 and $77,500, the Coinbase premium turns positive and stablecoin supply resumes growing. If bids give way while holder profitability erodes and stablecoin supply keeps contracting, leveraged positions could amplify a decline.
Treasury auction data cited in the article points to softer demand for US debt. The $25 billion 30-year bond auction on Nov. 12 cleared at 5.441% against a 5.437% when-issued yield, a 0.4-basis-point tail, with a bid-to-cover of 2.36 versus 2.54 in October. The 10-year sale two days earlier drew a bid-to-cover of 2.46 against 2.77 in October, with indirect bidders taking about 61.2% of competitive awards versus 80.3% in October. The article notes that the 30-year result sits within the range of recent sales and that the Treasury said demand for short-term bills remained strong, so the auctions indicate weaker appetite for duration rather than a broad retreat from US debt. Two-year yields near 4.835% and 10-year yields near 5.068% on Nov. 12 make cash and government debt more competitive with Bitcoin. Lee sees little chance of liquidity rotating into crypto until uncertainty from the midterms and a near-certain December rate hike clears.
On the spot side, Glassnode's Nov. 11 analysis found resting bids outweighing asks on Binance and Coinbase, with the largest concentration between $68,000 and $72,500. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC are accumulating, while other cohorts are distributing. Bitcoin fell below $72,000 on Nov. 12 with an intraday low near $71,255. About 35% of short-term holder supply is in profit, and Bitcoin trades below the $75,600 short-term holder cost basis, according to CryptoQuant, which reported profitable supply falling from more than 15 million BTC to about 11 million. The 30-day average Coinbase premium is negative, with its deepest discount since February, and stablecoin supply contracted $14 billion in 30 days, the fastest pace since June 2022. Farside Investors data showed about $2 billion of US spot ETF outflows from Nov. 2 through Nov. 11, including $300 million on Nov. 11.
Lee argued that outflows accelerate at bottoms and inflows at tops. DWF Labs' Oct. 22 study of 694 trading days found ETF flows correlated 0.54 with Bitcoin's prior five-day return and only 0.03 with its next five-day return. Glassnode places the True Market Mean near $77,500, a modeled six-month liquidation concentration at $59,500 to $62,600, a June low near $58,500 and a short-liquidation cluster near $87,500. The article says a recovery would gain support if buyers absorb selling in the $68,000 to $72,500 band, Bitcoin reclaims $75,600 and $77,500, the Coinbase premium turns positive and stablecoin supply resumes growing. If bids give way while holder profitability erodes and stablecoin supply keeps contracting, leveraged positions could amplify a decline.
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