Key Takeaways
- • Hilbert Group CIO Russell Thompson expects global liquidity to tighten by as much as 20%-25%, creating near-term headwinds for bitcoin, according to CoinDesk coverage dated April 20, 2026.
- • Thompson argues risk assets will not sustainably rally even with a quick geopolitical resolution in Iran without policy support from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve.
- • Expected policy tools include supplementary leverage ratio reform, a Treasury General Account drawdown without offsetting Fed bill issuance, and interest rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair.
- • Thompson maintains a bullish medium-term view, expecting bitcoin to be "significantly higher" by year-end 2026 and liquidity to bottom around 2027, a timeline that could coincide with new all-time highs.
- • Bitcoin, which peaked above $126,000 in October 2025 and fell to roughly $63,000 by February 2026, was trading around $75,600 per the source, underscoring the market's sensitivity to macro liquidity.
Summary
Hilbert Group Chief Investment Officer Russell Thompson warned that global liquidity is set to deteriorate sharply, with a broader tightening of 20%-25% approaching, according to CoinDesk. He said liquidity conditions have stabilized in parts of the financial sector following the rollout of the reserve maturity program, but that the broader drag could leave bitcoin struggling in the near term. Thompson's comments were published in a Hilbert Group report the prior week and characterized by CoinDesk as weighing on both risk assets and bitcoin.
Thompson argued that even a quick resolution to the conflict in Iran would not produce a sustainable rally in risk assets without outside help. He expects U.S. policymakers to respond with several measures: reform of the supplementary leverage ratio, which governs how much capital large banks must hold against total leverage; a sizable drawdown of the Treasury General Account without offsetting Federal Reserve bill issuance, which injects liquidity into the financial system; and a series of rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. He also anticipates legal clarity on key crypto regulation before the summer recess. Markets, he said, remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary liquidity source, while the Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds.
Bitcoin's path over the past six months has been marked by volatility. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, the asset entered a sustained drawdown into early 2026, falling to roughly $63,000 by February amid a broader crypto sell-off, ETF outflows and tighter financial conditions. CoinDesk reports bitcoin was trading around $75,600 at the time of publication.
Despite the near-term pressure, Thompson maintains a constructive medium-term outlook. He expects bitcoin to be significantly higher by year-end and sees the potential for fresh all-time highs by 2027. He also pointed to higher oil prices as a potential drag on growth, alongside a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit, which could add to disinflationary pressure and support a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.
Thompson argued that even a quick resolution to the conflict in Iran would not produce a sustainable rally in risk assets without outside help. He expects U.S. policymakers to respond with several measures: reform of the supplementary leverage ratio, which governs how much capital large banks must hold against total leverage; a sizable drawdown of the Treasury General Account without offsetting Federal Reserve bill issuance, which injects liquidity into the financial system; and a series of rate cuts under a potential new Fed chair. He also anticipates legal clarity on key crypto regulation before the summer recess. Markets, he said, remain overly focused on the Federal Reserve as the primary liquidity source, while the Treasury has significant capacity to inject funds.
Bitcoin's path over the past six months has been marked by volatility. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025, the asset entered a sustained drawdown into early 2026, falling to roughly $63,000 by February amid a broader crypto sell-off, ETF outflows and tighter financial conditions. CoinDesk reports bitcoin was trading around $75,600 at the time of publication.
Despite the near-term pressure, Thompson maintains a constructive medium-term outlook. He expects bitcoin to be significantly higher by year-end and sees the potential for fresh all-time highs by 2027. He also pointed to higher oil prices as a potential drag on growth, alongside a softening labor market and emerging stress in private credit, which could add to disinflationary pressure and support a faster-than-expected expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.
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