Key Takeaways
- • Bitwise Asset Management forecasts Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, raising its previous target of $1.3 million, according to its October 28, 2026 report.
- • The forecast implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, below the 63.5% CAGR Bitcoin delivered over the past ten years.
- • Bitwise cites rising US and global sovereign debt and weakening USD dominance as drivers pushing investors toward hard assets, with Bitcoin the best-performing asset over five years at a 1,069% gain versus 174.01% for gold.
- • Key risks flagged include quantum computing and AI-driven advances threatening Bitcoin's cryptography, regulatory uncertainty after Congress failed to pass the Clarity Act, and Bitcoin's limited track record.
Summary
Bitwise Asset Management has projected that Bitcoin could reach $1.6 million by 2036, according to a new forecast published in its October 28, 2026 report. The target is an increase from the firm's previous $1.3 million projection, made despite a sharp Bitcoin correction earlier in 2026. The forecast assumes a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the next decade, compared with the 63.5% annual rate Bitcoin achieved over the past ten years.
Bitwise analysts argue Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset over the coming decade. They point to rising sovereign debt in the United States and globally, along with weakening US dollar dominance, as macroeconomic conditions pushing investors toward hard assets. The report notes that Bitcoin has been the top performer over the past five years with a 1,069% gain, ahead of gold at 174.01%. The analysts also cite a supportive regulatory backdrop, particularly under the Trump administration, and point to greater regulatory clarity in jurisdictions including Hong Kong, the UK and the Middle East. According to the report, almost all major US financial institutions now have a crypto initiative, which the analysts see as opening a path to broader institutional adoption. They expect these factors to drive demand and, in turn, higher prices.
The report also outlines material risks. Bitwise identifies technical and quantum risk, warning that the core technology behind Bitcoin and many wallets could be exposed to rapid advances in quantum computing. Analysts also flag AI-driven advances in mathematics as a potential threat, and state that the Bitcoin blockchain would eventually need to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography. On regulation, the report notes that the failure of Congress to pass the Clarity Act means most US crypto rules rest on federal agency regulations, which could change with a shift in administration. Finally, the analysts cite Bitcoin's limited track record, noting the asset has existed for little more than two decades and that institutional adoption is even more recent.
Bitwise analysts argue Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset over the coming decade. They point to rising sovereign debt in the United States and globally, along with weakening US dollar dominance, as macroeconomic conditions pushing investors toward hard assets. The report notes that Bitcoin has been the top performer over the past five years with a 1,069% gain, ahead of gold at 174.01%. The analysts also cite a supportive regulatory backdrop, particularly under the Trump administration, and point to greater regulatory clarity in jurisdictions including Hong Kong, the UK and the Middle East. According to the report, almost all major US financial institutions now have a crypto initiative, which the analysts see as opening a path to broader institutional adoption. They expect these factors to drive demand and, in turn, higher prices.
The report also outlines material risks. Bitwise identifies technical and quantum risk, warning that the core technology behind Bitcoin and many wallets could be exposed to rapid advances in quantum computing. Analysts also flag AI-driven advances in mathematics as a potential threat, and state that the Bitcoin blockchain would eventually need to upgrade to quantum-resistant cryptography. On regulation, the report notes that the failure of Congress to pass the Clarity Act means most US crypto rules rest on federal agency regulations, which could change with a shift in administration. Finally, the analysts cite Bitcoin's limited track record, noting the asset has existed for little more than two decades and that institutional adoption is even more recent.
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