Key Takeaways
- • VanEck estimates Bitcoin miners pursuing AI data center businesses face a near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion above current cash positions, within a long-term capital expenditure need approaching $221 billion.
- • VanEck argues gross energized power (megawatts actually switched on) is the cleanest valuation metric, with companies holding physical leases such as Cipher Mining (CIFR), Hut 8 (HUT) and TeraWulf (WULF) trading above 10x gross energized power, versus 2-6x for Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK).
- • Across the peer group, miners have delivered only about 25% of leased capacity, and VanEck warns that companies missing construction milestones risk "structural de-ratings."
- • VanEck says the Bitcoin price link is overstated for most of the group, with only MARA, CLSK and RIOT carrying meaningful balance-sheet exposure to Bitcoin.
Summary
A research note from asset manager VanEck, authored by investment analyst Griffin MacMaster and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, estimates that Bitcoin miners pivoting toward AI data center hosting face a roughly $50 billion near-term funding gap. The firm characterizes this as the first structured valuation framework for companies that straddle Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure, and puts long-term capital expenditure needs for the sector at approximately $221 billion.
VanEck contends that disclosures across the sector vary widely and cash flows remain nascent, so gross energized power is the most reliable current metric. The market, according to the analysts, is paying for contracted and energized capacity while discounting pipeline projects. Cipher Mining, Hut 8 and TeraWulf command valuations above 10x gross energized power, while Marathon Digital and CleanSpark, with limited contracted AI capacity, trade at 2-6x.
Execution is a central concern. The firm says peer miners have delivered only about 25% of leased capacity and expects that figure to decline before improving as large-scale construction begins in 2027 and 2028. VanEck also notes that few of these companies have prior experience building AI-grade infrastructure. Its deal tracker points to active or advanced lease negotiations across several names, including Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, Riot Platforms and Core Scientific, with TeraWulf described as in advanced talks on a 480MW Kentucky site.
Funding capacity differs across the group. HIVE faces the most acute strain relative to market capitalization, while IREN and KEEL carry heavy near-term loads. Miners holding Bitcoin treasuries, including Marathon, CleanSpark and Hut 8, can monetize holdings to part-fund construction, whereas companies without such reserves face dilutive equity or incremental debt. VanEck also argues that the sector's average correlation to Bitcoin of roughly 0.55 overstates its true sensitivity, with only MARA, CLSK and RIOT having meaningful Bitcoin-linked balance-sheet exposure. The firm expects valuations to eventually shift toward delivery ratios and discounted cash flow models, and suggests some companies could eventually be sold or converted into REITs.
VanEck contends that disclosures across the sector vary widely and cash flows remain nascent, so gross energized power is the most reliable current metric. The market, according to the analysts, is paying for contracted and energized capacity while discounting pipeline projects. Cipher Mining, Hut 8 and TeraWulf command valuations above 10x gross energized power, while Marathon Digital and CleanSpark, with limited contracted AI capacity, trade at 2-6x.
Execution is a central concern. The firm says peer miners have delivered only about 25% of leased capacity and expects that figure to decline before improving as large-scale construction begins in 2027 and 2028. VanEck also notes that few of these companies have prior experience building AI-grade infrastructure. Its deal tracker points to active or advanced lease negotiations across several names, including Bitdeer, HIVE Digital, Riot Platforms and Core Scientific, with TeraWulf described as in advanced talks on a 480MW Kentucky site.
Funding capacity differs across the group. HIVE faces the most acute strain relative to market capitalization, while IREN and KEEL carry heavy near-term loads. Miners holding Bitcoin treasuries, including Marathon, CleanSpark and Hut 8, can monetize holdings to part-fund construction, whereas companies without such reserves face dilutive equity or incremental debt. VanEck also argues that the sector's average correlation to Bitcoin of roughly 0.55 overstates its true sensitivity, with only MARA, CLSK and RIOT having meaningful Bitcoin-linked balance-sheet exposure. The firm expects valuations to eventually shift toward delivery ratios and discounted cash flow models, and suggests some companies could eventually be sold or converted into REITs.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.