Key Takeaways
- • Bitcoin fell 5.4% from $84,800 to a weekend low of $79,200 after five consecutive daily declines, briefly breaking below $80,000, according to Investing.com citing Hilbert Group.
- • Hilbert Senior Portfolio Manager Jesse Marre identified $75,500 as a critical threshold; a break below it could undermine the bullish base built since the summer lows.
- • Brent crude pushed toward $117 a barrel on Iran tensions and speculation of a possible US military offensive, before retreating after Trump said no immediate offensive was planned.
- • Nvidia fell 8% and Meta Platforms dropped 9% over the week, with the Nasdaq Composite down about 2% and the S&P 500 down 1%, per Hilbert's October 26 market update.
- • Bitcoin ETFs recorded net weekly inflows of $442 million despite $635 million in outflows on Thursday, with flows largely following spot price movements.
Summary
Bitcoin faces further downside after a sharp selloff last week, as renewed geopolitical tensions, concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble and tightening global liquidity weigh on risk appetite, according to digital asset investment firm Hilbert Group. The decline pushed bitcoin down 5.4% from roughly $84,800 early in the week, with five consecutive daily declines and a brief break below $80,000 to a weekend low of $79,200.
The weakness coincided with a broader retreat in risk assets. Renewed tensions involving Iran lifted Brent crude toward $117 a barrel amid speculation about a possible US military offensive. Oil prices eased after President Donald Trump said no immediate offensive was planned, but remained elevated. Technology shares also came under pressure as investors reassessed AI-sector valuations: Nvidia shares fell 8% over the week and Meta Platforms dropped 9%. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 2% after an intraweek decline of roughly 3.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 1%, according to Hilbert's October 26 market update.
Hilbert's global liquidity index stood at 3.06, and its six-factor model recorded a weekly decline of 0.47 in its Z-score, indicating deteriorating liquidity momentum. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds nonetheless logged net inflows of $442 million over the week, although they saw $635 million in outflows on Thursday alone. The report suggested fund flows largely followed spot market movements rather than driving prices.
Bitcoin is testing technical support between $78,500 and $79,500. Marre said a recovery above $81,400 could help restore near-term stability, while moves above $85,000 and $87,500 would be needed to strengthen the case for another rally. A sustained breakout above $87,500 could open the way toward $95,000-$98,000. He identified $75,500 as the level that, if broken, could undermine the bullish base formed since the summer lows.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, where markets price an 87% probability of no change in rates. Marre expects a hawkish hold, with policymakers likely to keep a December rate increase on the table amid persistent inflation and resilient growth. Thursday's US PCE inflation and GDP data, followed by the Chicago PMI on Friday, could shape monetary policy expectations and determine whether pressure on risk assets persists.
The weakness coincided with a broader retreat in risk assets. Renewed tensions involving Iran lifted Brent crude toward $117 a barrel amid speculation about a possible US military offensive. Oil prices eased after President Donald Trump said no immediate offensive was planned, but remained elevated. Technology shares also came under pressure as investors reassessed AI-sector valuations: Nvidia shares fell 8% over the week and Meta Platforms dropped 9%. The Nasdaq Composite lost about 2% after an intraweek decline of roughly 3.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 1%, according to Hilbert's October 26 market update.
Hilbert's global liquidity index stood at 3.06, and its six-factor model recorded a weekly decline of 0.47 in its Z-score, indicating deteriorating liquidity momentum. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds nonetheless logged net inflows of $442 million over the week, although they saw $635 million in outflows on Thursday alone. The report suggested fund flows largely followed spot market movements rather than driving prices.
Bitcoin is testing technical support between $78,500 and $79,500. Marre said a recovery above $81,400 could help restore near-term stability, while moves above $85,000 and $87,500 would be needed to strengthen the case for another rally. A sustained breakout above $87,500 could open the way toward $95,000-$98,000. He identified $75,500 as the level that, if broken, could undermine the bullish base formed since the summer lows.
Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, where markets price an 87% probability of no change in rates. Marre expects a hawkish hold, with policymakers likely to keep a December rate increase on the table amid persistent inflation and resilient growth. Thursday's US PCE inflation and GDP data, followed by the Chicago PMI on Friday, could shape monetary policy expectations and determine whether pressure on risk assets persists.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.