Key Takeaways
- • Glassnode's futures liquidation heat map shows a concentrated cluster of leveraged Bitcoin long positions between $60,000 and $62,000, opened around the August breakout, which could accelerate selling if price falls into the zone.
- • CryptoQuant reports recent Bitcoin buyers have moved from roughly +35% unrealized returns in September to -15%, with an estimated on-chain cost basis of $80,300 versus prices near $65,000.
- • Negative US spot Bitcoin ETF flows and 30-day apparent demand of approximately -284,000 BTC add pressure, while large holders (1,000+ BTC) accumulated about 47,000 BTC against a roughly 65,000 BTC reduction among 10-1,000 BTC wallets.
- • Brave New Coin's technical snapshot shows BTC near $65,458, down about 2.49%, with an overall Sell signal, RSI at 25, and nearly all major moving averages above price.
- • Key levels cited include $63,000 support (CryptoQuant), $68,700 initial resistance, $57,870 prior low, and $53,800 realized price.
Summary
Bitcoin is trading under renewed selling pressure near $65,000 as weak demand, negative spot ETF flows and underwater recent-buyer positions raise downside risk, according to Brave New Coin. Glassnode's futures liquidation heat map identifies a concentrated cluster of leveraged long positions between $60,000 and $62,000, tied to entries made during the August breakout. Brave New Coin notes that this range is not a confirmed downside target, but a forced-liquidation cascade there could intensify an existing decline.
CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin's roughly 24% decline has pushed recent buyers into negative unrealized returns. Unrealized returns reportedly fell from approximately +35% in September to -15%, with an estimated on-chain cost basis of $80,300 against prices near $65,000. On-chain wallet data show addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC accumulated roughly 47,000 BTC, while wallets holding 10 to 1,000 BTC reduced balances by around 65,000 BTC. CryptoQuant estimates 30-day apparent demand at approximately -284,000 BTC, which it characterizes as insufficient to offset broader distribution.
Technically, the picture is mixed. Brave New Coin's BITSTAMP snapshot shows an overall Sell signal with 14 sell readings, five neutral and seven buy readings. The RSI stands at 25, Stochastic %K at 9 and CCI at -215, indicating oversold conditions that could support a short-term rebound. However, MACD is negative at -3,499 and ADX at 31 points to an established trend. The 10-day EMA (about $70,783), 20-day EMA ($73,926), 50-day EMA (about $77,094) and 200-day EMA (about $76,035) form potential resistance, and Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $70,000-$73,000 region to challenge higher levels. Classic pivot resistance sits at $84,375, $91,321 and $102,367, with supports at $73,329, $69,227 and $58,181.
Elliott Wave analyst Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP, cited by Brave New Coin, outlines two interpretations of the correction from the $126,272 peak to about $57,870 and the recovery toward $87,330. An Expanded Flat reading would place the current decline in Wave C, with $45,863 and $34,615 as potential downside targets and a break below $57,870 as confirmation. A Zigzag reading treats the advance as Wave A, with $95,000-$96,000 (the 38.2%-61.8% retracement zone) as a level to watch if buyers regain control. Neither scenario is confirmed. Brave New Coin concludes that Bitcoin's outlook depends on whether buyers defend the $63,000-$65,000 region and restore demand, with downside risks elevated until spot demand and ETF flows improve.
CryptoQuant data show that Bitcoin's roughly 24% decline has pushed recent buyers into negative unrealized returns. Unrealized returns reportedly fell from approximately +35% in September to -15%, with an estimated on-chain cost basis of $80,300 against prices near $65,000. On-chain wallet data show addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC accumulated roughly 47,000 BTC, while wallets holding 10 to 1,000 BTC reduced balances by around 65,000 BTC. CryptoQuant estimates 30-day apparent demand at approximately -284,000 BTC, which it characterizes as insufficient to offset broader distribution.
Technically, the picture is mixed. Brave New Coin's BITSTAMP snapshot shows an overall Sell signal with 14 sell readings, five neutral and seven buy readings. The RSI stands at 25, Stochastic %K at 9 and CCI at -215, indicating oversold conditions that could support a short-term rebound. However, MACD is negative at -3,499 and ADX at 31 points to an established trend. The 10-day EMA (about $70,783), 20-day EMA ($73,926), 50-day EMA (about $77,094) and 200-day EMA (about $76,035) form potential resistance, and Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $70,000-$73,000 region to challenge higher levels. Classic pivot resistance sits at $84,375, $91,321 and $102,367, with supports at $73,329, $69,227 and $58,181.
Elliott Wave analyst Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP, cited by Brave New Coin, outlines two interpretations of the correction from the $126,272 peak to about $57,870 and the recovery toward $87,330. An Expanded Flat reading would place the current decline in Wave C, with $45,863 and $34,615 as potential downside targets and a break below $57,870 as confirmation. A Zigzag reading treats the advance as Wave A, with $95,000-$96,000 (the 38.2%-61.8% retracement zone) as a level to watch if buyers regain control. Neither scenario is confirmed. Brave New Coin concludes that Bitcoin's outlook depends on whether buyers defend the $63,000-$65,000 region and restore demand, with downside risks elevated until spot demand and ETF flows improve.
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